000 AXNT20 KNHC 280448 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Mar 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the border of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 07N15W. The ITCZ extends from 04N16W to 01N27W to 00N36W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted south of 06N and east of 22W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of 04N between 23W and the coast of South America. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails over the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a 1020 mb high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf near 26.5N84W. Gentle anticyclonic wind flow prevails across most of the basin, with seas ranging from 1 to 4 ft. Fresh E winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft are likely occurring in the Yucatan Channel and off the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate SE to S winds are occurring off the coast of southern Texas, where seas are around 3 ft. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to fresh return flow over the western Gulf through tonight. Then, southerly winds over the western Gulf are expected to gradually increase to strong speeds Tue through Wed. These winds along with rough seas are going to spread to the central and eastern Gulf on Wed ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf by late Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from 20N71.5W, across northern Haiti, and ending near 19N75W. A shear line continues from 19N75W to 17.5N76W to the Gulf of Honduras near 17N88W. Cloudiness with possible showers exist near and within 120 nm north of the shear line, between Jamaica and Belize. Recent total precipitable water imagery shows high moisture content over the Gulf of Honduras. Farther south, showers and thunderstorms have been flaring up near the Colombia low, over Colombia and over water from 08N-11N between 73W-76.5W. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data show mainly fresh NE winds over the NW Caribbean, but strong speeds are noted in the Windward Passage and east of Jamaica. Strong winds are also likely occurring in the lee of Cuba. Recent altimeter data from 28/0017 UTC show seas of 5 to 7 ft over the NW Caribbean. Fresh trades cover the southern Caribbean with strong winds near the coast of Colombia. Seas likely average 5 to 6 ft in this area, except up to 8 ft near the coast of Colombia. Gentle wind speeds are present over the northeast Caribbean, where seas are 3-4 ft. For the forecast, the shear line will keep lingering showers over the northwestern Caribbean, including Jamaica and Hispaniola this morning. High pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic will promote fresh to strong trades in the western and central sections through at least mid-week. This area includes N of Colombia, the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras. Trade winds over the eastern section will become moderate to fresh by Tue morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near 31N59W to 25N65W to the north coast of Haiti near 20N72W. Scattered moderate convection near the front is mainly north of 29N and east of 61W. Cloudiness and possible isolated showers are present elsewhere along the front. Recent ASCAT data show mainly fresh NW winds north of 27N and west of 68W, with moderate north winds south of 27N, over the Bahamas. Seas are in the 6 to 9 ft range across most of the western Atlantic, highest north of 27N between 65W-77W. Farther east, a 1025 mb high pressure centered near 30N43W dominates the central Atlantic with surface ridging. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1000 mb occluded low pressure system is centered near 30N22W. The cold front associated with this system is well to the east, now entering the African continent. The tail end of this cold front is analyzed as a dissipating cold front, extending over the Atlantic from 21N16W to the Cabo Verde Islands near 17N25W. Scattered showers are along the front. Recent ASCAT wind data show strong winds within 390 nm W of the low and within 300 nm south of the low pressure, with a small area of near-gale winds in the southern semicircle. Altimeter data from 27/2035 UTC show wave heights of 15 to 18 ft from 27N-31N between 20W-23W. Seas are likely still 13 to 16 ft in this area, to the west of the Canary Islands. Farther south in the tropical Atlantic, fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas prevail from 02N-15N between 35W-50W. For the forecast west of 65W, the fresh winds north of 27N and west of 68W will diminish this morning. The front will remain nearly stationary from 23N65W to the Dominican Republic through Wed while gradually weakening. By this afternoon, a high pressure building eastward from Florida should bring improving conditions to the western part of the area. Then, east to southeast winds will increase to fresh to strong across the waters S of 24N beginning on Tue. Winds will also increase to fresh to strong speeds E of the Florida Peninsula Wed evening into Thu ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the western Atlantic on Fri. $$ Hagen