000 AXNT20 KNHC 262355 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Mar 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning E of 35W: A gale-force 994 mb low pressure system centered near 35N25W, or about 580 nm northwest of the Canary Islands is forecast to move toward the south-southeastward to near 32W24W while weakening some. Gale-force winds in its western semicircle will move south of 31N on Sunday morning. Gale conditions are present over the western part of marine zone Irving. Wave heights of 10-16 ft will build to 15-21 ft on Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France, at the following website: http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal plains of Liberia near 05N09W to 02N17W where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to the Equator at 25W, to 02S30W and to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. A separate surface trough extends from the Prime Meridian at 04N, to the Equator near 04W. Numerous strong convection is noted within 240 nm north of the monsoon trough east of 13W to inland Africa and within 120 nm north of the monsoon trough between 13W-14W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03S to 03N between 09W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 27W-33W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has pushed southeast of the basin, and extends from western Cuba to just east of the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. In its wake high pressure has build over the region, anchored by 1023 mb high center over the western Gulf near 24N93W. This is providing mostly clear skies throughout. Only a few patches of high-level clouds streaming eastward are over the western Gulf ,and small patches of low-level clouds are over the far south-central Gulf near the Yucatan Channel and over the north-central Gulf from 27N to 28N between 86W-89W. Wave heights are in the range of 3-5 ft east of 90W, except 2-4 ft north of 25N, and 1-3 ft west of 90W. For the forecast, a cold front associated with strong low pressure over the northeastern U.S. will sink across N Florida this evening. It is expected to sustain moderate to fresh winds across the E Gulf through Sun morning. In its wake, a 1023 mb high currently over the western Gulf will move across northern Gulf through Sun allowing for moderate to fresh return flow to become established over the western and S central Gulf by Sun evening. Toward mid-week, fresh to strong with locally near-gale southerly flow and rough seas will develop across much of the Gulf ahead of another cold front that will approach the Texas coast. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening cold front extends from eastern Cuba southwestward to the north-central Gulf of Honduras. Mainly fresh north to northeast winds are northwest of this front, with wave heights of 5-7 ft. Broken multilayer clouds with isolated to scattered showers are along and northwest of the front to near 86W. A second cold front extends from the central Bahamas to western Cuba and to just east of the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Latest ASCAT data passes show moderate north to northeast winds north of the front reaching the far southern Gulf of Mexico between 84W- 89W, including the Yucatan Channel. Wave heights are 4-5 ft behind the front. Scattered to broken low clouds are along the front. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are east of 80W, while fresh to strong northeast to east winds are within 900 nm of the coast of Colombia between 72W-76W and mainly gentle northeast winds are west of 80W to east of the first cold front mentioned above. Wave heights range from 4-6 ft in the central sections, 5-7 ft in the eastern and southwestern sections of the sea and 3-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the weakening cold front that extends from eastern Cuba to north-central Gulf of Honduras will sustain moderate to fresh northerly winds across the region, including the Gulf of Honduras through tonight. This front should gradually dissipate over the NW Caribbean on Sun. High pressure over the central Atlantic will promote fresh to strong trades in the S central Gulf, N of Colombia through midweek, and in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage from Sun evening through Tue night. For the same reason, trade winds across the north-central and northeast part of the basin will become moderate to fresh by Tue morning. Fresh trade winds along with larger trade-wind swell will continue over the Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles through mid- week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on the Gale Warning in the eastern Atlantic. A cold front extends from near 31N63W to the southeastern Bahamas and to eastern Cuba. A second cold front extends from near 31N72W to the central Bahamas and to western Cuba. Northwest to north moderate winds are north of the two cold fronts. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are to the south and southeast of the first cold front, except for fresh to strong southwest winds north of 25N as noted in the latest ASCAT data pass. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen within 90 nm northwest of the first front north of 28N. Isolated showers are possible elsewhere along and near the front. Over the central Atlantic, a 1023 mb high center is analyzed near 30N57W. Associated anticyclonic wind flow is present north of 19N between 35W and the first cold front mentioned above. In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from a 994 mb gale-force low pressure system that is north of the area near 35N25W southeastward to 31N20W and southwest from there to 24N24W to 20N40W and dissipating west to 20N45W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, under cold air instability aloft, are north of 26N west of the front to near 28W. Wave heights are in the range of 9-14 ft north and northwest of the cold front. Outside near-gale to the gale-force winds, fresh to strong northerly winds are north of 24N between the front and 35W. Fresh southerly winds are present north of 25N and east of cold front. Fresh northerly winds are elsewhere north of the cold front between 30W-40W, while fresh northeast winds are south of 20N and between 40W-60W. Wave heights are in the range of 9-14 ft north and northwest of the cold front. Wave heights are in the 6-8 ft range south of 20N and between 30W-60W. Lower wave heights in the 4-7 ft range east of the front. For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front that extends from near 31N72W to the central Bahamas and to western Cuba will sustain moderate to fresh westerly winds for the offshore waters E of N and central Florida this evening. A second cold front is forecast to move across northern Florida late tonight, which should cause these winds to increase to between fresh and strong. As this front steadily moves eastward through Mon morning, these conditions should progress into the west-central Atlantic waters. Fresh to locally strong southwest winds east of the cold front that extends from 31N63W to the southeastern Bahamas and to eastern Cuba will shift eastward across the central Atlantic through Mon. By Mon night, high pressure building eastward from Florida should bring improving conditions. $$ Aguirre