635 AXNT20 KNHC 260554 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Mar 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: A gale force 998 mb low pressure near 38N28W is forecast to move south-southeastward to near 33N24W during the next 24 hours. Gales on the west side of the low pressure are likely to move south of 31N early Sun morning. The Meteo-France outlook for the period 27/0000-28/0000 UTC calls for cyclonic near gale or gale over portions of the marine zones Meteor, Irving and Madeira. Seas will build to 15-18 ft in the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 04N15W to 00N18W. The ITCZ continues from 00N18W to 02S33W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02S to 04N between 02W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A reinforcing cold front extends from Sarasota Florida to 23.5N87W and is accompanied by a line of clouds with no precipitation. A recent ASCAT pass shows moderate to fresh NW winds over the NE Gulf behind the front. High pressure of 1021 mb has built in over the western Gulf, where gentle anticyclonic winds prevail. The ASCAT satellite data shows fresh N winds in the Yucatan Channel, increasing to strong farther south, to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula. The latest buoy data shows significant wave heights up to 6 ft in the NE Gulf. Seas are likely 4-6 ft over the eastern Gulf and 2-3 ft over the western Gulf. For the forecast, the reinforcing cold front will bring moderate to locally fresh winds behind it until it exits the basin later this morning. After briefly diminishing later today, moderate to locally fresh winds will return to the eastern Gulf tonight through the remainder of the weekend, due to an approaching cold front over the southeastern U.S. that should stall north of the Gulf Coast. By early next week, moderate to fresh return flow is expected to develop across the western Gulf. SE to S winds are likely to increase to strong by mid-week across most of the basin in response to a cold front over Texas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid-level anticyclonic flow prevails across the eastern half of the Caribbean Sea, where fairly dry air is in place. A cold front extends across the NW Caribbean Sea from central Cuba to the north-central coast of Honduras. The front has recently become stationary from 19N85W to 16N86.5W. Isolated showers are near and within 60 nm NW of the front. A recent ASCAT satellite wind pass shows strong N winds behind the front, to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are likely 7-9 ft in this area. The ASCAT data show gentle winds east of the front to Jamaica, where seas are 3-5 ft. Fresh trades prevail over the eastern Caribbean east of 77W, locally strong near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are mainly 5-8 ft in this area, except 7-9 ft near the coast of Colombia. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will continue NW of the cold front, including in the Gulf of Honduras, through early this morning. The front will gradually dissipate over the NW Caribbean by Sun. A high pressure progressing eastward across the NE Gulf of Mexico will cause NE trades to become fresh to strong in the lee of Cuba and in the Windward Passage by early next week. Moderate to fresh winds across the eastern and central Caribbean will decrease to moderate by this afternoon. Fresh to locally strong trades over the S central Caribbean N of Colombia will persist through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on the Gale Warning in the eastern Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N71W to Cat Island, Bahamas to central Cuba near 22N80W. Scattered moderate convection is within 45 nm behind and 90 nm ahead of the front, north of 25.5N and east of 73W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 210 nm west of the front, north of 24N and east of 79W. Fresh SW winds are ahead of the front, while moderate NW winds are west of the front, according to recent ASCAT data. However, fresh to strong winds are creeping into the area to the east of northern Florida, in association with a reinforcing cold front, which currently extends from 31N79W to Cape Canaveral Florida. Buoy data from NOAA buoy 41010 near 28.9N 78.5W shows winds have recently increased to 27 kt with seas 5 ft. Seas increase from 5 ft near the Bahamas to 8 ft near 31N. A 1023 mb high pressure near 33N51W extends surface ridging across the central Atlantic, with gentle winds and 5-6 ft seas prevailing north of 24N between 47W-60W. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N28W to 25N34W to 23N42W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm either side of the cold front, mainly north of 27N and east of 28W. ASCAT data from Friday evening shows strong to near gale force winds on both sides of the front, mainly north of 27N between 26W-38W. Seas are likely currently 12 to 15 ft in this area. Fresh trade winds prevail in the tropical Atlantic from 03N-17N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, with seas mainly 8 to 9 ft in the area. For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front that stretches from 31N71W to central Cuba will progress eastward through the weekend, bringing fresh to strong NW winds behind it and SW winds ahead of it. This should also allow fresh SE winds N of Hispaniola to decrease to moderate later this morning. The reinforcing cold front, currently moving off the NE Florida coast, will continue to produce fresh to strong winds behind it as it shifts eastward over the next few days. A third cold front will dip near the Florida coast by tonight, bringing a reinforcing round of strong winds through Sun. For early next week, a high pressure exiting the Florida coast should bring improving conditions. $$ Hagen