000 AXNT20 KNHC 241027 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Mar 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Winds are pulsing to gale force through 1200 UTC and will do it again tonight. Seas will peak around 12 ft on this morning. Winds and seas should gradually diminish by the weekend. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 01N20W. The ITCZ extends from 01N20W to 02S29W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06S to 04N between 09W and 23W and W of 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend near 30N84W to 23N44W to the coast of Mexico in the eastern Bay of Campeche near 19N91W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection continues to train along and west of the front N of 23N between 83W and 91W. Isolated thunderstorms are also noted in the southeast Bay of Campeche. Recent buoy data depict 8 ft seas across the southwest Gulf. Fresh to locally strong NW to N winds are noted west of the front, with moderate to fresh S winds east of the front. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the western Gulf, and 3 to 5 ft east of the front. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind the front today, mostly in the eastern Bay of Campeche. The front will move over the Yucatan Peninsula today, and then over the NW Caribbean and W Cuba tonight into Fri morning. Showers and thunderstorms will continue along the front through this evening. A weak cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Thu and bring fresh to locally strong NW winds behind it. This front will arrive at the NE Gulf by Fri afternoon and exit by Sat evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Mid-level anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin, which is leading to subsidence and mostly dry conditions. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the basin, except fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean and south-southwest of Haiti. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 8-12 ft in the south- central Caribbean, 6 to 8 ft south- southwest of Haiti, and mainly 4 to 7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will sustain pulsing winds to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds will prevail in the E Caribbean through Fri night. A cold front is expected to move into the NW Caribbean late tonight, bringing fresh to locally strong winds across the Yucatan Passage and Gulf of Honduras through Fri. The front will gradually dissipate through the weekend. Fresh trade winds, along with large trade- wind swell, across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones will persist through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Fresh to strong southerly winds are noted off the NE Florida coast. Showers and thunderstorms continue to stream off the FLorida coast northward out of the forecast waters, N of 29N and W of 78W. Seas range 5-7 ft. To the east of the area, a 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 32N67W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are under the high along with 3 to 5 ft seas, from roughly north of 26N between 62W and 71W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow prevails elsewhere west of 65W, locally fresh to strong north of Hispaniola. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the waters west of 65W in mixed swell. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N42W to 24N60W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough mainly N of 26N. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted in the central Atlantic north of 29N between 35W and 55W. Stronger winds are noted north of 31N due to a large and complex gale- force low pressure system well north of the area. NW to N swell from that system is likely currently reaching as far south as 27N, with seas of 8 to 12 ft from 29N to 30N over the central Atlantic. Surface ridging prevails from a 1027 mb high pressure north of the area and southwest of the Azores. Gentle winds are within a few hundred nm of the ridge axis, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted elsewhere southeast and south of the ridging, except moderate to fresh south of 20N and west of 55W. Seas are 7 to 11 ft across the waters southeast and south of the ridging. For the forecast W of 65W, fresh trade winds offshore Hispaniola, including the Windward Passage will pulse to strong tonight. Fresh to strong SE to S winds off NE Florida are going to continue through this morning. A cold front will push off the NE Florida coast later this afternoon. It will maintain fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front and northerly winds behind it over the waters N of 27N through Fri. A second cold front will move into the western Atlantic late Fri, bringing another round of fresh to strong winds behind it. Afterward, a strengthening low pressure off the Carolina coast should prolong these winds through Sun. For the forecast E of 65W, a low pressure system late this week near the Azores will extend a cold front south-southwestward, bringing strong to near gale force winds to the area north of 25N between 25W and 50W, Thu night through Fri night, spreading eastward through upcoming weekend. Seas are forecast to build to 10 to 17 ft over the area of these winds. $$ AReinhart