000 AXNT20 KNHC 240513 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Mar 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Winds are pulsing to gale force tonight and will do it again Thu night. Seas will peak around 12 to 13 ft on Thu morning. Winds and seas should gradually diminish by the weekend. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 09N14W to 01N22W. The ITCZ extends from 01N22W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection in the vicinity of the ITCZ S of 02N and W of 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from 30N85W to 25N88W to 19N92W. A pre- frontal trough extends from 29N83W to 27N84W. Scattered showers prevail in the vicinity of the front/trough mainly N of 27N. Recent buoy data depict seas of 4-7 ft over the northeast Gulf. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are noted west of the front, with moderate to fresh S winds east of the front. Seas are 5 to 8 ft west of the front, and 3 to 6 ft east of the front. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will continue behind the front through Thu morning, mostly in the SW Gulf. The front will reach the Yucatan Peninsula mid Thu morning, and then over the NW Caribbean and W Cuba Fri morning. Showers and thunderstorms will continue along the front through Thu evening. A weak cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Thu and bring moderate to fresh winds behind it. This front will arrive at the NE Gulf by Fri afternoon and exit by Sat evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Mid-level anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin, which is leading to subsidence and mostly dry conditions. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the basin, except fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean, northeast of the Gulf of Honduras, and south-southwest of Haiti. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in the south- central Caribbean, 6 to 8 ft south-southwest of Haiti, and mainly 4 to 7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will sustain pulsing winds to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight and Thu night. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds will prevail in the E Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh trade winds, along with large trade-wind swell, across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones will persist through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 30N66W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are under the high along with 3 to 5 ft seas, from roughly north of 26N between 62W and 71W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow prevails elsewhere west of 65W, locally fresh to strong north of Hispaniola. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the waters west of 65W in mixed swell. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N44W to 24N57W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough mainly N of 30N. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the central Atlantic north of 29N between 40W and 55W, with stronger winds north of 31N due to a large, and complex gale-force low pressure system well north of the area. NW to N swell from that system is likely currently reaching as far south as 29N, with seas of 8 to 11 ft from 29N to 31N over the central Atlantic. Surface ridging prevails from a 1027 mb high pressure north of the area and southwest of the Azores near 35N28W to 31N45W to 24N60W. Gentle winds are within a few hundred nm of the ridge axis, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted elsewhere southeast and south of the ridging, except moderate to fresh south of 20N and west of 55W. Seas are 7 to 11 ft across the waters southeast and south of the ridging. For the forecast W of 65W, fresh trade winds offshore Hispaniola, including the Windward Passage will pulse to strong tonight and Thu night. Fresh to strong SE to S winds off NE Florida are going to continue through Thu morning before shifting eastward Thu afternoon. A cold front will push off the NE Florida coast late Thu afternoon. It will maintain fresh to strong southerly winds to its E, and northerly winds to its W over the waters N of 27N through Fri. A second cold front will move into the western Atlantic late Fri, bringing more fresh to locally strong winds behind it. Afterward, a strengthening low pressure off the Carolina coast should prolong these winds through Sun. For the forecast E of 65W, a low pressure system late this week near the Azores will extend a cold front south-southwestward, bringing strong to near gale force winds to the area north of 25N between 25W and 50W, Thu night through Fri night, spreading eastward through upcoming weekend. Seas are forecast to build to 10 to 17 ft over the area of these winds. $$ ERA