000 AXNT20 KNHC 221743 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Mar 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Winds off the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale force tonight and Wed night. The latest satellite altimeter data captured 12 ft seas in the warning area earlier this morning. Today, seas will range from 8-11 ft, then peak at 12 ft overnight in the highest winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the border Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N11W to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to 02S33W to the coast of Brazil near 03S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from the ITCZ north to 02N west of 45W. Scattered moderate convection is also located from the equator north to 03N between 20W and 37W, and from 04N to 08N between 44W and 53W, including coastal regions of French Guiana. GULF OF MEXICO... At 1500 UTC, a cold front extends across the NW Gulf from Galveston, Texas to Brownsville, Texas. Ahead of the front, a trough extends from the Texas-Louisiana border to 23N97W to 1007 mb low pressure centered near 21N95W. Scattered moderate convection is along the trough north of 28N, with frequent lightning detected. West of both the front and the trough, fresh to strong NW winds are occurring according to recent surface observations. East of the front and trough, fresh to strong SE to S winds have been reported across the basin north of 27N. A few surface reports indicate near gale force gusts in the north- central Gulf. Seas are 8-10 ft north of 25N and west of 89W. Elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico, mainly fresh SE flow prevails with seas of 6-8 ft. For the forecast, strong southerly return flow is expected across the western Gulf today ahead of the aforementioned cold front forecast to move farther into the basin this afternoon. Fresh to strong SE to S winds will prevail elsewhere. This front will reach the SE waters by late Thu, and move just SE of the area by Thu night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front on Wed, mainly across the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Outside of the gale warning area, moderate to fresh trades prevail over the central Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas. The latest scatterometer indicates moderate trades in the Eastern Caribbean, which curve cyclonically around a trough analyzed along 64W from 12N to 18N. Seas are 4-6 ft in the E Caribbean. In the W Caribbean, trades are moderate and seas are 4-6 ft. Observations this morning indicated strong winds in the Windward Passage. While no significant convection is apparent on satellite across the Caribbean, patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade flow may produce isolated showers today. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support pulsing winds to minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia tonight and Wed night. Fresh to locally strong winds will prevail elsewhere across the central and eastern Caribbean. Fresh trade winds, along with large trade-wind swell, across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones will persist during the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N53W to 26N64W then becomes stationary to 24N74W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm east of the front north of 28N. West of the front to the Florida Coast, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails along the southern periphery of high pressure centered north of the discussion area, with 4-6 ft seas. North of 15N and and west of 50W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 4-7 ft seas are noted. South of 15N and west of 50W, seas are 8-10 ft with fresh NE flow. East of 50W, across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, fresh NE winds prevail with 8-11 ft seas in N swell. For the forecast W of 65W, fresh winds will pulse to strong nightly into mid- week offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage. A cold front extending from 25N65W to 24N75W will stall and dissipate by mid-week. Fresh to strong SE to S winds are expected off NE Florida tonight through Thu ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the western Atlantic by Thu afternoon. The fresh to strong southerly wind will persist ahead of the front over the waters N of 27N through Fri. $$ Mahoney