000
AXNT20 KNHC 211556
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Mar 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
To 04N12W. The ITCZ continues from 04N12W to 00N33W to 00N47W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03S 
to 04N And E of 20W, and scattered moderate from the Equator to 
06N W of 20W To 50W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front extends from an area of low pressure in SE New 
Mexico to 29N94W to 27N91W. This is causing southeasterly fresh 
to strong return flow south of the front along the western Gulf 
coast. Seas are reaching up To 7 ft north of 25N. Coastal areas 
from Galveston south to Brownsville show Small Craft Advisories 
and Gale Warnings through tonight. In the offshore Waters beyond 
60 nm, fresh to strong return flow is noted. Cold front across the
western Atlantic extends across the northern Bahamas into the 
eastern Gulf. Strong high pressure builds behind it with moderate 
to fresh east to southeast winds and seas ranging from 3-5 ft E of
90W.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force southerly return 
flow will develop over much of the western and northern Gulf 
ahead of the next cold front. That cold front will move off the 
Texas coast by Tue night and move through the Gulf through late 
this week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong to near gale force wind prevail over the south central
Caribbean. Fresh winds prevail elsewhere over the north central
and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are noted over
the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the
south central Caribbean and 5-7 ft elsewhere over the north
central and eastern Caribbean. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over
the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
mainly fresh trade winds along with large trade-wind swell across
the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones through the forecast period.
Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central and eastern
Caribbean during this time. Fresh to locally strong winds will 
also start to pulse Tuesday night in the Gulf of Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N64W to 26N72W to South Florida near 
25N82W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 30N63W. 
Fresh to strong winds and seas of 5-8 ft prevail west of the 
front. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere north of 20N and west of 
40W. Seas in the 8-10ft range are elsewhere across the discussion 
waters. High pressure of 1026 mb is centered near 34N39W, with 
ridge extending to the west and east along 20N. Light to gentle 
winds are in the vicinity of the high N of 17N. Moderate to fresh 
winds prevail elsewhere south of 20N. 

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh winds will pulse to strong 
nightly into mid-week offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward 
Passage. A cold front extends from near Bermuda to South Florida. 
The front will move east across the region, then exit the area 
mid-week. Strong NW winds will follow this front along 30N. Strong
S flow may set up offshore FL by the middle of the week ahead of 
the next cold front.

$$
MTorres-Falcon