000
AXNT20 KNHC 202215
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Mar 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2140 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 10N14W 
to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 00N23W to the coast
of NE Brazil near 0.5SN48W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is noted south of the monsoon trough from 05S to 04N between 05W 
and 22W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm 
north of the ITCZ between 26W and 50W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has become stationary across the basin and extends 
from near Fort Myers, Florida to 23.5N90W to 22N93.5W. A 1027 mb 
high pressure center over central Alabama allows for fresh NE to 
E winds poleward of the front with moderate NE flow in the Bay of
Campeche, and fresh NW winds along the Mexican coast near Veracruz.
Moderate seas of 4-6 ft remain behind the front with seas 6-8 ft 
noted in the far SW Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will remain stalled over the SE Gulf 
tonight, then lift north as a weak warm front into Mon night, 
before dissipating. Another cold front will move off the Texas 
coast Tue. Ahead of the front, widespread strong southerly winds 
can be expected for the start of next week. Near gale conditions 
is possible Mon night into Tue offshore the Texas coast.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong E winds and rough seas continue over the central 
and eastern Caribbean today due to the pressure gradient between 
high pressure over the tropical N Atlantic and lower pressure over
Colombia. The strongest winds are within 90 nm of the coast of 
Colombia with seas reaching 10 ft. Over the western Caribbean, 
gentle to moderate winds prevail with 3 to 5 ft seas. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
mainly fresh trade winds along with large trade-wind swell 
across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones through the forecast 
period. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central and
eastern Caribbean during this time.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters our area of responsibility near 31N75W and 
extends SW to near Jupiter, Florida. Fresh NW to N winds are behind
the front with gentle to moderate southerly winds ahead of it. 
Seas remain 3 to 5 ft SE of the front and are 5-7 ft NW of the
front. Gentle SE winds are over the Bahamas where seas are 3 to 5
ft, while moderate to fresh E tradewinds prevail north of Puerto 
Rico and Hispaniola to 21N where seas are 6 to 7 ft.

Farther east, a broad area of high pressure continues over the 
tropical N Atlantic between 28N-30N. Scatterometer data from this
morning showed light to gentle winds generally north of 22N and 
west of 35W. Moderate NE winds were east of 35W including over 
the Canary Islands. Fresh to strong NE winds prevailed south of 
22N. Mainly moderate seas are north of 20N and west of 45W. Rough 
seas in E swell are south of 20N between 50W and the Lesser 
Antilles. Seas east of 40W and north of 15N are 10 to 12 ft in N 
swell. 

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh winds will pulse to strong 
nightly early this week offshore Hispaniola. The cold front will 
continue to move east, becoming oriented along 25N Tue, then 
stalling. Strong NW winds are likely to follow this front along 
30N. Strong S flow may set up offshore FL by the middle of the 
week, ahead of the next cold front.

$$
Stripling