000
AXNT20 KNHC 201758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Mar 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 10N14W 
to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 01N35W to 01N50W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of 
the monsoon trough from 00N to 06N between 05W and 20W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm north of 
the ITCZ between 20W and 40W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Fort Myers, Florida to the eastern 
Gulf where it transitions to stationary and continues to the 
southwest Gulf. A 1025 mb high pressure center over Mississippi 
allows for fresh NE to E winds following the front with moderate 
E winds in the NW Gulf and gentle to moderate NE flow in the Bay 
of Campeche. Moderate seas remain behind the front with seas 
near 8 ft noted in the far SW Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will remain stalled over the SE Gulf 
tonight, then lift north as a weak warm front into Mon night, 
before dissipating. Another cold front will move off the Texas 
coast Tue. Ahead of the front, widespread strong southerly winds 
can be expected for the start of next week. Near gale conditions 
is possible Mon night into Tue offshore the Texas coast.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong E winds and rough seas continue over the central 
and eastern Caribbean sea today due to the pressure gradient 
between high pressure over the tropical N Atlantic and lower 
pressure over Colombia. The strongest winds are within 90 nm of 
the coast of Colombia with seas reaching 12 ft. Over the western 
Caribbean, gentle to moderate winds prevail with 3 to 5 ft seas. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
mainly fresh trade winds along with large trade-wind swell 
across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones through the forecast 
period. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central and
eastern Caribbean during this time.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters our area of responsibility near 31N77W and 
extends SW to Fort Pierce, Florida. Recent scatterometer data 
reveals fresh ENE winds behind the front with gentle to moderate 
southerly winds ahead of it. Seas remain 3 to 5 ft. Scatterometer
also notes gentle SE winds over the Bahamas where seas are 3 to 5
ft and moderate E winds north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola where
seas are 6 to 8 ft.

Farther east, a broad area of high pressure continues over the 
tropical N Atlantic. Scatterometer data from this morning found 
light to gentle winds generally north of 22N and west of 35W. 
Moderate NE winds are east of 35W including over the Canary 
Islands. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail south of 22N. Mainly 
moderate seas are north of 20N and west of 45W. Rough seas in E 
swell are south of 20N between 50W and the Lesser Antilles. Seas 
east of 40W and north of 15N are 10 to 12 ft in N swell. 

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh winds will pulse to strong 
nightly early this week offshore Hispaniola. The cold front will 
continue to move east, becoming oriented along 25N Tue, then 
stalling. Strong NW winds are likely to follow this front along 
30N. Strong S flow may set up offshore FL by the middle of the 
week, ahead of the next cold front.

$$
Mora