000 AXNT20 KNHC 181627 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Mar 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1620 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to the central Atlantic near 01N22W. The ITCZ continues from 01N22W to the Brazilian coast near 03S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 04N between 15W and 38W. A second area of scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm on the cast of Brazil between 01S and 05N. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure is centered over northern Florida. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow prevails across much of the central Gulf. Seas over this area are in the 4-6 ft range. Winds have decreased to gentle in the west central Gulf. For the forecast, a cold front will move off the Texas coast today, then move E through the Gulf through the weekend. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are expected behind the front in the western Gulf, with fresh S winds ahead of it over the northern Gulf. Early next week, strong southerly return flow will develop over the western and central Gulf, in advance of the next cold front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong easterly winds prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 8-10 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 6-8 ft in the north- central and eastern Caribbean, and 3-5 ft in the northwest Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support mainly fresh trade winds along with large trade-wind swell across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will also prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean during this time. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Sat. A weak cold front may enter the Yucatan Channel by the end of the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends across the NW subtropical Atlantic from 31N71W to south central Florida near 27N80W. No significant impacts are observed from this feature with gentle winds and slight to moderate seas on either side of the boundary. High pressure north of the area in the central Atlantic is causing anticyclonic flow across the basin. A cold front extends across the central subtropical Atlantic from 31N31W to 25N53W where it becomes stationary and continues to 28N60W. Winds are moderate behind these features and gentle ahead, though winds increase to fresh south of 20N in the western and central Atlantic, where seas are 8-10 ft. Winds are generally moderate or lighter in the eastern Atlantic with 12-14 second long period swell from the north reaching up to 12 ft between the Cabo Verde and Canary Islands. For the forecast W of 65W, high pressure centered north of the area will support pulsing of fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola into early next week. As the ridge retreats eastward, a cold front will move off the coast of Florida Sat, and reach from near Bermuda to western Cuba by Mon. $$ FLYNN