000
AXNT20 KNHC 172323
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Mar 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The 
ITCZ extends from 03N13W to 01S30W to 01N45W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 03N 
between 10W and 32W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1019 mb located over the NE Gulf dominates the
basin. The pressure gradient between this system and strengthening
low pressure over northern Texas allows for fresh to locally strong
SE winds over the NW Gulf. This was recently confirmed by an ASCAT
pass. Mainly moderate to locally fresh SE winds prevail across 
the remainder of the western half of the Gulf waters, with gentle
to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted elsewhere. Seas of 3-5 ft
are present in the western Gulf, while seas of 1-3 ft are observed
elsewhere in the basin. Some cloudiness, with possible showers, 
are over the NW Gulf in a southerly warm and humid flow.

For the forecast, the next cold front will move off the Texas coast
Fri morning, then move E through the Gulf through the weekend, before
dissipating in the far SE Gulf Mon. Fresh to locally strong NW winds
are expected behind this front in the western Gulf, with fresh S winds
ahead of it over the northern Gulf. Seas are forecast to build 
to 8 ft over the SW Gulf near the Veracruz area by Sat evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong trade
winds across the east and central Caribbean, including the Gulf 
of Venezuela, and gentle to moderate winds over the NW part of 
the basin. Seas of 6-8 ft are in the eastern and central Caribbean,
with higher seas of 8-10 ft occurring off NW Colombia. Seas of
4-6 ft are elsewhere, except N of 19N and W of 78W where seas of
1-3 ft are seen. 

Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, 
are moving across the area producing isolated to scattered 
passing showers. These patches of moisture are more concentrated 
across the NE Caribbean and over Jamaica and regional waters. The
San Juan Doppler radar confirmed the presence of some shower 
activity over Puerto Rico and adjacent waters.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
fresh to occasionally strong trade winds along with large trade- 
wind swell across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones through 
the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will also prevail 
across the central and eastern Caribbean during this time. Fresh 
to strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras nightly
through Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N76W to just south of Lake
Okeechobee in Florida. Some shower activity is near the frontal 
boundary. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are ahead of the 
front while gentle to moderate westerly winds are behind the 
front based on latest satellite derived wind data. Moderate to 
fresh easterly winds are just N of Hispaniola. Farther east, a 
weak cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N40W, then 
continues SW and then W to near 28N60W where it becomes stationary
to just W of Bermuda. A narrow band of mainly low clouds, with 
possible showers, is related to the front. High pressure of 1030 
mb located NE of the Azores dominates the remainder of the 
Atlantic forecast region. The pressure gradient between this 
system and lower pressures over W Africa supports fresh to strong
NE winds between the Canary Islands, and also from 15N-24N E of 
22W. This includes the waters between the Cabo Verde Islands and 
the W coast of Africa. Seas are generally 8-11 ft within these 
winds. Fresh to locally strong trades are also noted E of the 
Lesser Antilles to about 45W with seas of 8-10 ft. 

For the forecast W of 65W, high pressure N of the area will support
pulsing of fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola through the
weekend. As the ridge retreats eastward, a cold front will move 
off the coast of Florida Sat, then reach a Bermuda to Florida 
Straits line by Mon. 

$$
GR