000 AXNT20 KNHC 171705 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Mar 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1655 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is confined to the African continues. The ITCZ extends from 03N11W to TO 01S25W to 01N38W. A surface trough is found from 05N40W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05S to 05N between 10W and the coast of NE Brazil near 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening stationary front extends across south Florida to near Dry Tortugas and no significant convection is associated with this feature. A broad ridge over the SE United States dominates most of the Gulf of Mexico, permitting fairly tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient as the result of the strong ridge and a strengthening low pressure over northern Texas allows for fresh to locally strong SE winds over the NW Gulf. This was recently confirmed by a scatterometer satellite pass. The rest of the Gulf enjoys gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds. Seas of 2-4 ft are present in the western Gulf, while seas of 1-3 ft are noted elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will stall and dissipate by tonight. Another cold front will move off the Texas coast Fri, then move E through the Gulf over the weekend, before dissipating in the far SE Gulf Mon. Fresh NW winds are expected behind this front, with fresh S winds ahead of it over the northern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail across the Caribbean Sea as an expansive subtropical ridge dominates the region. The pressure gradient as the result of the strong ridge and lower pressures over northern South America is causing fresh to strong trades across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. The strongest winds are occurring off NW Colombia and southern Hispaniola. Seas of 6-10 ft are found in the eastern and central Caribbean, with the highest seas occurring off NW Colombia. Moderate or weaker trades and seas of 2-6 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to occasionally strong trade winds along with large trade-wind swell across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will also prevail across the central Caribbean during this time. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras nightly into Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N76W to central Florida and a surface trough is found about 60 nm ahead of the front. A line of showers is observed on satellite imagery from the NW Bahamas to near 31N near the trough axis. Fresh to strong southerly winds are noted ahead of the front to 72W and N of 28N. Fresh to locally strong trades are also present in the waters of offshore Hispaniola and SE Bahamas. Farther east, a weak cold front extends from 31N45W to 27N55W to 29N63W, where it transitions into a warm front that continues northwestward into a extratropical storm over the Eastern Seaboard. A few shallow showers are seen near the frontal boundary. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive 1034 high pressure system near the Azores that is promoting fairly tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient as the result of the subtropical ridge and lower pressures over the deep tropics result in fresh to locally strong NE-E winds, mainly S of 20N and W of 30W. Seas in this region are 8-11 ft. Fresh to locally strong N-NE winds are found E of 22W, with the strongest winds occurring offshore Morocco. Seas in the described region are 8-14 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-8 ft are prevalent. For the forecast W of 65W, a ridge of high pressure across the area will support pulsing of fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola into the weekend. As the ridge retreats eastward, a cold front will move off the coast of Florida this weekend, then reach a Bermuda to Florida Straits line by Mon. $$ DELGADO