000
AXNT20 KNHC 170756
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Mar 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from 01N14W to near 01S41W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 05S to 05N between 
08W and 50W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating front extends from central Florida to near 25N84W.
High pressure of 1017 mb is centered over the central Gulf near
26N88W. Moderate to fresh return flow prevails over the western
Gulf with light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Gulf waters. 
Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the western Gulf and 1-3 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the front will gradually stall and dissipate 
today. Moderate to fresh return flow will set up across the W Gulf
this evening ahead of the next cold front to enter the NW Gulf 
Fri morning. This front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to 
near Tampico, Mexico Sat morning, and stall from south Florida to 
the central Gulf Sun morning where it will dissipate. E to SE 
moderate to fresh winds will prevail behind this front across the 
basin. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central and eastern
Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds over the western
Caribbean. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the central and
eastern Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over the western Caribbean. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
fresh to occasionally strong trade winds along with large trade-
wind swell across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones through the
forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will also prevail across 
the central Caribbean during this time. Fresh to strong E to SE 
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Fri night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends off the coast of northern Florida. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm
east of the front. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across much of
the waters north of 21N, with fresh to strong winds south of 21N
and west of 40W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail south of 21N and
east of 40W. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters
west of 75W as well as north of 25N between 50W and 75W. Seas of
6-8 ft are elsewhere north of 20N, and 8-10 ft south of 20N.

For the forecast W of 65W, the ridge of high pressure across the 
area will support pulsing of fresh to strong winds north of 
Hispaniola through the week. The ridge will retreat eastward this 
weekend enabling a cold front to move off the coast of Florida by 
Sun morning. The front will extend from near Bermuda to south 
Florida on Mon. 

$$
AL