000
AXNT20 KNHC 170536
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Mar 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0430 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains over central Africa. An ITCZ extends 
southwestward from SW of Liberia near 04N10W through EQ28W to NW 
of Fortaleza, Brazil near 02S40W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is observed from 04S to 06N between 08W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front curves southwestward from N and central Florida
through near Tampa to W of the Florida Keys at 25N84W. Scattered
showers are occurring E of the front across central Florida. A 
surface trough is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise, a dome of 1017 mb high
located over the central Gulf is supporting gentle to moderate
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft for the central and E Gulf. Moderate 
SE return flow with 3 to 4 ft seas are present over the W Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will gradually stall and dissipate
during Thu morning. Moderate to fresh return flow will set up 
across the W Gulf Thu evening ahead of the next cold front to 
enter the NW Gulf Fri morning. This front will reach from the 
Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico Sat morning, and stall 
from S Florida to the central Gulf Sun morning where it will 
dissipate. E to SE moderate to fresh winds will prevail behind 
this front across the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A subtropical ridge over the W central Atlantic continues to
support NE to ENE trades across the Caribbean Sea. Convergent
trade winds are producing scattered showers and thunderstorms near
the Panama-Colombia border and adjacent Caribbean waters. Patchy
trade-wind showers are moving across the central basin, S of Haiti
and Jamaica. Moderate to fresh with locally strong trades and 
seas at 6 to 8 ft are seen across the E and central basin. Gentle 
to moderate trades with seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of 
the basin.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will maintain fresh to 
occasionally strong trade winds along with large trade-wind swell
across the Atlantic waters near the Lesser Antilles through early
this weekend. Fresh to strong winds will also prevail across the 
central Caribbean during this time. Fresh to strong E to SE winds 
will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Thu and Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are erupting E of a cold 
front located over N Florida, N of the Bahamas between 75W and 
80W. Another cold front curves southwestward from the N central 
Atlantic across 31N50W to 29N62W, then continues west- 
northwestward as a stationary front to beyond S of Bermuda at 
21N67W. Patchy showers are seen N of 28N between 50W and 65W. A 
surface trough is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms N of
Sao Luis, Brazil from the Equator to 06N between 40W and 48W. 
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in
the Atlantic Basin.

Residual northerly swell along with wind waves created by moderate
to fresh NE trades are sustaining 8 to 11 ft seas near the Canary
Islands, N of 20N between the NW African coast and 35W. Farther S
and SW, moderate to fresh trades along with 8 to 10 ft seas are
evident on the latest satellite ASCAT and altimetery data from the
Equator to 20N between 35W and 61W/Lesser Antilles. Moderate with
locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen from
the Greater Antilles to 25N/Central Bahamas between 61W and the S
Florida coast. Light to gentle with locally moderate winds and 
seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast W of 65W, the Bermuda High will support pulsing 
of fresh to strong winds N of Hispaniola through the week. The 
high will retreat eastward this weekend enabling a cold front to 
move off the coast of Florida by Sun morning. The front will 
extend from near Bermuda to S Florida on Mon.

$$

Chan