000 AXNT20 KNHC 140351 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Mar 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Senegal from 12N16W to 10N20W. The ITCZ reaches from 01S30W to 00N38W to 02S48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to 04N between 18W and 27W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge reaches from 1031 mb high pressure off the Carolina coast across the northern Gulf coast. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N, with 6 to 9 ft combined seas including a component of northerly swell. High seas are near the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted north of 25N. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident. For the forecast, the ridge extending from high pressure off the Carolinas to the coast of Texas will continue to dominate the Gulf through early Tue evening. This pattern will continue to support moderate to fresh with locally strong easterly winds and higher seas across the southern Gulf overnight. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin through Mon. Fresh E to SE return flow will set up over the Gulf in advance of the next cold front. The front will enter the far NW Gulf late Mon night into early Tue, and reach from the western Florida panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche by late Tue. Fresh winds accompanying this front will diminish through mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A shear line extends from east-central Cuba across Grand Cayman Island to the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted north of the shear line, with 5 to 8 ft seas. The strongest winds are in the lee of Cuba. High pressure north of the area off the Carolinas is also supporting strong winds off Colombia, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Fresh NE winds are impacting the Windward Passage. Seas are 5 to 7 ft south of the shear line. A few showers and thunderstorms are active along the shear line over the Gulf of Honduras, but no significant convection is evident elsewhere. For the forecast, the stationary front/shearline extending from east-central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will start to weaken overnight, then dissipate late Mon afternoon. Afterward, high pressure building eastward N of the area will cause increasing trade winds and building seas for the east and central Caribbean through mid week. Looking ahead, a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will stall and dissipate near the Yucatan Channel Wed evening. Expect fresh to strong E to SE winds off Honduras by late Thu. Large trade-wind swell will persist east of the Lesser Antilles through late Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the western North Atlantic, crossing 30N at 58W and extending to 28N67W where it becomes a stationary front and continues to eastern Cuba. 1031 mb high pressure is analyzed north of the front off the Carolina coast. Fresh to strong NE winds are evident within 120 nm west of the front, to include across the central Bahamas. Seas are 8 to 13 ft west of the front over open waters to about 75W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft west of 75W to the coast of Florida. Areas of showers are noted along the front as well. Farther west, a ridge extends from 1034 mb high pressure near the Azores Islands, it reaches southwest to 29N60W. The ridge is supporting a large area of fresh to strong trade winds south of 25N with 8 to 10 ft seas in E swell. This encompasses the entire tropical north Atlantic, from the coast of Africa to the Lesser Antilles. Fresh to strong N winds and 8t o 10 ft seas are following a trough moving into the waters from Morocco to the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 65W, the stalled front will start to lift north early Mon morning and dissipate through late Mon. Rough seas in NW swell are expected to linger through early this week northeast of the Bahamas, then slowly subside through mid week. Large E swell will persist east of the Leeward and Windward Islands through late Thu. $$ Christensen