000 AXNT20 KNHC 132311 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Mar 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2310 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 01N25W. The ITCZ continues from 01N25W to 01N36W to 01S48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 07S to 07N and E of 31W. GULF OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure over southern Georgia extends a ridge southward, covering most of the basin, and providing moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds E of 90W and E to SE winds of the same magnitude over the western half of the gulf. Seas are 3-4 ft N of 27N and 5-8 ft elsewhere with the highest seas being in the Bay of Campeche and SE gulf. For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to diminish across the basin through Mon. Fresh E to SE return flow will set up over the Gulf in advance of the next cold front forecast to enter the far NW Gulf late Mon night into early Tue. The front will then reach from the western Florida panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche by late Tue. Fresh winds accompanying this front will diminish through mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong NE winds and seas to 8 ft are over the NW Caribbean behind a shear line, remnants of a stationary front, that extends from eastern Cuba SW to the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated showers are being reported to the west of this feature while middle level divergent flow and high moisture over the north-central Caribbean support a broad area of showers across Hipaniola and adjacent waters. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong trades are prevalent in the eastern, central and SW Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring offshore NW Colombia where seas are in the 5-7 ft range. For the forecast, a shear line extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will gradually dissipate through Mon. High pressure building north of the area in the wake of a former front will allow increased trade winds and building seas over the eastern and central Caribbean tonight through mid week. Looking ahead, a second cold front will stall and dissipate across the Yucatan Channel by late Wed. Expect fresh to strong E to SE winds off Honduras by late Thu. Otherwise, large E swell will persist east of the Leeward and Windward Islands through late Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N60W to eastern Cuba with fresh to strong winds and rough seas on either side of it as well as along the Great Bahama Bank. Seas are 8-13 ft NE of the Bahamas. The rest of the Atlantic is dominated by strong high pressure centered near the Azores Islands and a second center of high pressure near 32N42W. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics results in fresh to locally strong winds S of 25N and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 8-10 ft in this wide region. Fresh to strong NE winds are also W of the Canary Islands to 30W due to a strong pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the tail of a front just W of Portugal. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft in that region or NE Atlantic high seas. For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will stall across the waters E of the Bahamas by this evening, then lift north and dissipate through Mon. A wide-band of about 120nm of fresh to strong NE winds will persist just behind the front on Mon. Rough seas in NW swell are expected to linger through early this week northeast of the Bahamas, then slowly subside through mid week. Large E swell will persist east of the Leeward and Windward Islands through late Thu. $$ Ramos