000 AXNT20 KNHC 130004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Mar 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends across the Florida Straits to the NE Yucatan peninsula with gale force winds over the SW basin and strong to near gale force winds elsewhere, except the far NW gulf. Seas range between 8 to 18 ft being the higher seas in the Bay of Campeche. The front is forecast to move just SE of the Gulf by this evening. Strong northerly winds with frequent gusts to gale-force will continue to affect most of the basin through this evening. Seas will subside to 8-12 ft by Sunday morning as high pressure builds in behind the front. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from 31N75W to the Straits of Florida. Gale-force southwest winds are over the waters north of 30N and west of 79W. Southwest winds of 20-30 kt with frequent gusts to gale force are elsewhere north of 27N and west of 70W. As the front passes, winds will shift to the northwest and maintain gale force speeds through the night. Seas will build to the range of 10-15 ft north of 30N and west of 70W. Winds will begin to diminish Sun morning and seas will subside to 8-12 ft by Mon morning as high pressure builds in behind the front. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Liberia near 05N09W to 00N18W. The ITCZ continues from 00N18W to 01S26W to the coast of Brazil near 05S35W. Heavy showers and tstms are from 0N to 07N between 0W to 20W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06S to 02N between 20W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning and the associated strong cold front. For the forecast, high pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward through Mon, allowing for fresh east to southeast return flow to set up over the Gulf in advance of the next cold front. This cold front is expected to enter the far NW Gulf late Mon night, and reach from the western Florida panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche by late Tue. Fresh winds will precede and follow this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong ridge remains in place in the central Atlantic extending to the northern Caribbean waters. This is supporting the continuation of mainly fresh trade winds across the eastern half of the basin with seas of 5 to 7 ft whereas light to gentle variable winds and seas to 3 ft are elsewhere. For the forecast, a cold front will move across the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean by early this evening, bringing fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas to the area. The trade wind flow will increase to fresh to strong speeds over the eastern and central Caribbean late Sun night through Wed night. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong trades and NE to E swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles well into next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning in the W Atlantic. Strong to gale-force winds are occurring ahead and behind of a strong cold front that extends from 31N75W to the Straits of Florida. Surface ridging anchored by a 1027 mb high pressure centered near 30N47W domaintes the remainder basin N of 15N. This is supporting the continuation of fresh to locally strong winds in the tropical Atlantic waters to the E of the Lesser Antilles all the way to the W coast of Africa. For the forecast, gale conditions are expected ahead and behind the front through tonight, then fresh to strong winds will persist behind the front on Sun. Rough seas are expected to linger through early next week, then slowly subside through Wed night. Elsewhere, swell will continue to impact the Lesser Antilles into early next week as this swell event will be reinforced by another set of swell. $$ Ramos