000 AXNT20 KNHC 110433 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Mar 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico Fri evening. Gale-force winds will develop in the NW Gulf on Fri night and continue across the western Gulf along the Mexican coast and the north-central Gulf coast as the front quickly moves eastward. Seas will build 8 to 15 ft across the northern Gulf with 10 to 18 ft in the southwest Gulf on Sat. Winds will diminish on Sun with seas subsiding by early Mon. Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the sub- tropical western Atlantic mid-day Sat. Gale-force SW winds will begin to develop in the waters north of 30N Sat morning. As the front passes, winds will shift to NW, while maintaining gale strength through Sat night. Seas will build 12-16 ft north of 28N and west of 60W. Winds will decrease early Sun with seas abating early Mon. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends into the eastern Atlantic from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 01N17W. The ITCZ continues from 01N17W to the Brazilian coast near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm along the length of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for more information on the gale warning in the basin. Broad troughing extends across the northern Gulf along the remnants of an old stationary front. A few isolated thunderstorms are observed in the northeast Gulf near this feature. Marine conditions are generally favorable throughout the basin with gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, the trough will slowly dissipate through early Fri. Fresh southerly winds are expected to develop in the central Gulf on Fri ahead of a strong cold front expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri evening. Gale-force winds and very rough seas are expected in the wake of the front over the western and north- central portion of the Gulf waters Fri night and Sat. Strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas will follow this front across the rest of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure ridging north of the area is maintaining generally moderate to fresh easterly flow across the basin. Strong winds are noted near Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are moderate throughout the basin. 8-10 ft swell is observed just east of the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds will end in the Gulf of Honduras by Sat morning. A cold front is expected to move across the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean Sat evening, bringing fresh to strong winds and building seas to the area. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong trades and NE to E swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for more information on the gale warning in the basin. A surface trough extending from 31N75W to south Florida near 27N80W is generating a line of thunderstorms and fresh southerly winds in the western Atlantic. Otherwise, a 1029 mb high pressure near 30N46W in the central Atlantic dominates the pattern. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are observed across the basin from 10N to 25N, with lighter winds to the north and south. Rough seas of 8-10 ft are observed within this region. Long period swell is propagating into the central sub-tropical Atlantic from storms farther north. A recent altimeter pass found 10 ft swell in the light winds near the high pressure center. For the forecast west of 65W, fresh southerly winds will prevail across the NE Florida waters tonight. Winds will increase fresh to strong off the NE Florida coast Fri night ahead of a strong cold front forecast to enter the SW N Atlantic on Sat. Gale conditions are expected ahead and behind the front Sat. Rough seas are expected Sat through early next week. Elsewhere, swell that has been impacting the offshore waters N of Puerto Rico will subside today, but continue to impact the Lesser Antilles through the weekend. $$ FLYNN