000 AXNT20 KNHC 102310 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Mar 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico Fri evening. Gale-force winds will develop in the NW Gulf on Fri night and continue across the western Gulf along the Mexico coast and the north-central Gulf coast as the front quickly moves eastward. Seas will build 8-15 ft across the northern Gulf with 10 to 18 ft in the southwest Gulf on Sat. Winds will diminish on Sun with seas subsiding by early Mon. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic from coastal Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N16.5W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16.5W to 00N20W to 00N40W to the Brazilian coast near 0.5S47W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04.5S to 04N between 05W and 21W, from 04S to 01N between 23W and 45W, and S of 04.5N between 45W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for more information on the gale warning in the basin. A weak stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend near 30N84W to 27N88W. Weak 1014 mb low pressure is analyzed along the front near 29N85W. A line of thunderstorms up to 60 nm wide is ahead of the boundary stretching from 26.5N88W to 26.5N82.5W. A surface trough extends from the tail end of the front to the Bay of Campeche. Moderate NE winds prevail north of the front, while moderate to fresh southerly winds are ahead of it covering the southeastern Gulf. Moderate N-NW winds are west of the surface trough. Recent buoy observations and altimeter data note 3 to 5 ft seas across the basin except 5 to 6 ft across central portions to the S of the low center. The front will linger in the central Gulf while gradually dissipating today. Moderate winds will prevail behind the front today. Fresh southerly winds are expected to develop in the central Gulf on Fri ahead of a strong cold front expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri evening. Gale force winds and very rough seas are expected in the wake of the front over the western and north- central portion of the Gulf waters Fri night and Sat. Strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas will follow this front across the rest of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure ridging north of the area is maintaining generally moderate easterly flow across the basin with areas of fresh winds south of Hispaniola, north of Colombia, and north of the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are moderate throughout the basin except for north of Colombia, where seas are up to 9 ft, and south of Hispaniola were seas are 6-8 ft. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds will end in the Gulf of Honduras by Sat morning. A cold front is expected to move across the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean Sat evening, bringing fresh to strong winds and building seas to the area. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong trades and NE to E swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 1015 mb low pressure near 33N75W to 31N75W to just offshore Cape Canaveral, Florida. Morning scatterometer satellite pass depicted a sharp wind shift around a trough with fresh NNW winds north of the trough and fresh S winds south of it. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen within 180 nm SE of the trough to the coast of central Florida. Otherwise, a 1027 mb high pressure is centered near 31N43W, and anchors a broad E to W surface ridge across the Atlantic. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are noted N of 24N with 5 to 8 ft seas, except 8 to 10 ft in new NW swell N of 28N and E of 45W. Fresh to strong winds are noted S of 24N between 35W and 65W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in this area in generally NE to E swell. For the forecast west of 65W, fresh southerly winds will prevail across the NE Florida waters through tonight. Winds will increase fresh to strong off the NE Florida coast Fri night ahead of a strong cold front forecast to enter the SW N Atlantic on Sat. Gale conditions are expected ahead and behind the front Sat. Rough seas are expected Sat through early next week. Elsewhere, swell that has been impacting the offshore waters N of Puerto Rico will subside today but continue to impact the Lesser Antilles through the weekend. $$ Stripling