000 AXNT20 KNHC 101700 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Mar 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico Fri evening. Gale-force winds will develop in the NW Gulf on Fri night and continue across the western Gulf along the Mexico coast and the north-central Gulf coast as the front quickly moves eastward. Seas will build 8-15 ft across the northern Gulf with 10 to 18 ft in the southwest Gulf on Sat. Winds will diminish on Sun with seas subsiding by early Mon. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic from coastal Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from 02N17W to 00N30W to the Brazilian coast near 01S47W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is noted from 05S to 07N between 05W and 22W. Scattered moderate convection is also within 150 nm of the ITCZ between 26W and 47W GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for more information on the gale warning in the basin. A weak stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to 26N91W. A line of thunderstorms is about 90 nm ahead of the boundary stretching from the Florida Big Bend to 25N90W. A surface trough extends from the tail end of the front near 26N91W to the Bay of Campeche. Moderate N-NE winds prevail behind the front, while moderate to fresh southerly winds are ahead of it covering the eastern Gulf. Moderate N-NW winds are behind the surface trough. Recent buoy observations and altimeter data note 3 to 5 ft seas over the basin. For the forecast, the front will linger in the central Gulf while gradually dissipating today. Moderate winds will prevail behind the front today. Fresh southerly winds are expected to develop in the central Gulf on Fri ahead of a strong cold front expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri evening. Gale force winds and very rough seas are expected in the wake of the front over the western and north-central portion of the Gulf waters Fri night and Sat. Strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas will follow this front across the rest of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure ridging north of the area is maintaining generally moderate easterly flow across the basin with areas of fresh to strong winds south of Hispaniola, north of Colombia, and within the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are moderate throughout the basin except for north of Colombia and within the Gulf of Honduras, seas are up to 9 ft. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds will end in the Gulf of Honduras by Sat morning. A cold front is expected to move across the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean Sat evening, bringing fresh to strong winds and building seas to the area. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong trades and NE to E swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 31N75W to Cape Canaveral, Florida. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depicted a sharp wind shift around a trough with fresh NNW winds north of the trough and fresh S winds south of it. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also associated with this feature. Otherwise, a 1029 mb high pressure is centered near 33N42W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are noted N of 26N with 5 to 8 ft seas. Fresh to strong winds are noted S of 26N between 35W and 65W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in this area in generally NE to E swell. For the forecast west of 65W, fresh southerly winds will prevail across the NE Florida waters through tonight. Winds will increase fresh to strong off the NE Florida coast Fri night ahead of a strong cold front forecast to enter the SW N Atlantic on Sat. Gale conditions are expected ahead and behind the front Sat. Rough seas are expected Sat through early next week. Elsewhere, swell that has been impacting the offshore waters N of Puerto Rico will subside today but continue to impact the Lesser Antilles through the weekend. $$ Mora