000 AXNT20 KNHC 101026 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Mar 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico Fri evening. Gale-force winds will develop in the NW Gulf on Fri night and continue across the western Gulf along the Mexico coast and the north-central Gulf coast as the front quickly moves eastward. Seas will build 8-14 ft across the northern Gulf with 10 to 18 ft in the southwest Gulf on Sat. Winds will diminish on Sun with seas subsiding by early Mon. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic from coastal Guinea near 09N13W to 03N20W to 00N28W. The ITCZ continues from 00N28W to the Brazilian coast near 03S42W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 02S to 06N between 12W and 24W. Isolated weak convection is noted within 200 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for more information on the gale warning in the basin. A weak stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N86W to 26N92W to the southern Bay of Campeche near 19N92W. Overnight ASCAT data and buoys have been reporting moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas north and west of the front, with gentle winds and slight seas in the central and eastern Gulf. Expect moderate southerly winds in the Yucatan Channel and moderate SE winds in the Florida Straits. For the forecast, the stationary front will linger in this area and gradually dissipate today. Moderate winds will prevail behind the front today. Fresh southerly winds are expected to develop in the central Gulf on Fri ahead of a strong cold front expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri evening. Gale force winds and very rough seas are expected in the wake of the front over the western and north-central portion of the Gulf waters Fri night and Sat. Strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas will follow this front across the rest of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure ridging north of the area is maintaining generally moderate easterly flow across the basin with areas of fresh to strong winds near the coast of the Dominican Republic, Colombia and Honduras. Seas are moderate throughout the majority of the basin. Isolated thunderstorms are noted south of the Dominican Republic. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds will end south of the Dominican Republic today and in the Gulf of Honduras by Sat morning. A cold front is expected to move across the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean Sat evening, bringing fresh to strong winds and building seas to the area. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong trades and NE to E swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front along the SE United States is generating moderate to locally fresh southerly winds along the northern coast of Florida. Scattered thunderstorms are noted N of 29N and W of 77W. Otherwise, a 1027 mb high pressure centered near 31N47W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are noted under the high pressure N of 26N with 5-8 ft seas. Fresh to strong winds are noted S of 26N between 35W and 65W. Seas are 8-10 ft in this area in generally NE to E swell. For the forecast west of 65W, fresh southerly winds will prevail across the NE Florida waters through tonight. Winds will increase fresh to strong off the NE Florida coast Fri night ahead of a strong cold front forecast to enter the SW N Atlantic on Sat. Gale conditions are possible ahead and behind the front Sat. Rough seas are expected Sat through early next week. Elsewhere, swell that has been impacting the offshore waters N of Puerto Rico will subside Thu, but continue to impact the Lesser Antilles through the weekend. $$ AReinhart