000 AXNT20 KNHC 100402 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Mar 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the east Atlantic from the coastal border of Sierra Leone and Guinea and extends to the central Atlantic near 01N25W. The ITCZ continues from this location to the Brazilian coast near 01S45W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is noted from 03S to 06N between 10W and 28W. Isolated strong convection is also noted in the Gulf of Guinea. Isolated weak convection is noted within 420 nm of the ITCZ in the western Atlantic. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. Buoys are reporting moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas north and west of the front, with gentle winds and slight seas in the central Gulf. Expect moderate southerly winds in the Yucatan Channel and moderate SE winds in the Florida Straits. For the forecast, the stationary front will remain stalled through Thu before gradually dissipating. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail behind and ahead of the front through Thu. A strong cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri evening. Gale force winds and very rough seas are expected in the wake of the front over the west and central parts of the Gulf waters Fri night and Sat. Strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas will follow this front across the rest of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure ridging north of the area is maintaining generally moderate easterly flow across the basin with areas of fresh to strong winds near the coast of the Dominican Republic, Colombia and Honduras. Seas are moderate throughout the majority of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds will end south of the Dominican Republic Thu, and in the Gulf of Honduras by Sat morning. A cold front is expected to move across the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean Sat evening, bringing fresh to strong winds and building seas to the area. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong trades and NE to E swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front along the SE United States is generating fresh southerly winds along the northern coast of Florida along with scattered thunderstorms. Otherwise, a 1028 mb high pressure centered near 29N52W dominates the pattern in the Atlantic. Observations are indicating gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow north of 23N with moderate to fresh NE wind south of 23N. Altimeter data is indicating 6-10 ft seas across the basin. For the forecast west of 65W, fresh to strong southerly winds will prevail across the waters E of NE Florida through tonight. Winds will increase again in that area Fri night into Sat morning ahead of a strong cold front forecast to enter the SW N Atlantic on Sat. Gale conditions and very rough seas are possible ahead and behind the front Sat and Sun. Elsewhere, swell that has been impacting the offshore waters N of Puerto Rico will subside Thu, but continue to impact the Lesser Antilles through the weekend. $$ FLYNN