000
AXNT20 KNHC 071602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Mar 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1400 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W 
to to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to the coast of
Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted west of
15W, extending up to 180 nm north and 240 nm south of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The majority of the basin is dominated by a moderate to fresh 
southeasterly breeze and moderate seas. Fresh easterly winds in 
the Florida Straits are generating 6-8 ft seas.

For the forecast, Dense fog and hazy skies over the NW Gulf will 
dissipate by noon today as a cold front starts to move into the 
NW Gulf this afternoon. Fresh to strong winds are expected behind 
the cold front through tonight when the boundary is forecast to 
stall from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. The 
stationary front will then linger across the area through 
midweek and then gradually dissipate by Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh easterly winds dominate the central and eastern
Caribbean. Areas of strong winds are noted in the Windward 
Passage, south of Hispaniola and along the coast of Colombia. Seas
are generally 6-8 ft with up to 11 ft observed near Colombia. 
Conditions are more favorable with in the NW Caribbean with 
moderate easterly winds and 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through
Thu night, in the Windward Passage through tonight, and south of 
Hispaniola through Tue. Moderate to fresh trades, along with 8 to 
9 ft seas in persistent northeast to east swell, will continue to 
impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through the upcoming
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The weather is dominated by a 1031 mb high pressure centered east
of Bermuda near 32N58W. Surface ridging extends WSW from the high
to northern Florida, with mainly moderate anticyclonic winds 
north of 25N and west of 65W. The pressure gradient increases
south of 25N in the western Atlantic, with buoys reporting fresh 
to strong easterly winds. Rough seas up to 11 ft are observed east
of the Bahamas. 

In the central Atlantic, the tail end of a cold front extends 
from 31N34W to 29N42W where a shearline continues to 25N58W. 
Scatterometer satellite data is reporting moderate to fresh NE 
winds behind these features. South of 25N, a large area of 
moderate to fresh easterly winds is generating rough seas across 
the majority of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 65W, High pressure over the western 
Atlantic will shift eastward and gradually weaken the next couple
of days. This will diminish the fresh to strong easterly winds 
and easterly swell across the offshore waters to the east of the 
Bahamas through Tue morning. Fresh to locally strong southerly 
flow is forecast for the NE Florida offshore waters Tue night to 
Wed night, resuming and expanding in areal coverage Fri night 
ahead of the next cold front.

$$
FLYNN