432 AXNT20 KNHC 050421 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Mar 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong high pressure centered south of the Azores will continue to induce gale force northerly winds offshore of Morocco through at least 1200 UTC today in the marine zones Agadir and Tarfaya. Seas are up to 13-16 ft in the area. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast from Meteo-France at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the border of Sierra Leone and Guinea near 09N14W to 09N16W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 01N30W to 00N42W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of 07N between 25W and the coast of South America. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging remains in place across the Gulf, with a 1024 mb high pressure centered near the Florida Panhandle, keeping tranquil conditions in place. Fresh to strong NE to E trade winds are noted in the Florida Straits. Seas have recently built to 3-5 ft across the Florida Straits and Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail, except for light to gentle in the NE Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will continue over the Gulf basin. Fresh to strong winds will continue over the SE Gulf today, including the Straits of Florida. Seas will build to 8 to 10 ft across the SE Gulf waters. Fresh southerly return flow will develop over the NW Gulf through Sun night. A cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf on Mon and reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid-level anticyclonic flow covers most the basin, which is inducing subsidence and relatively dry conditions for most areas. However, isolated moderate convection is noted near Hispaniola, and a few light showers are possible near eastern Cuba as well. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong NE winds within 60 nm of the south coast of Cuba between 77W-83W. Seas are currently building to 4-5 ft in this area. Fresh winds are noted in the south-central Caribbean, with locally strong near the coast of Colombia, where seas are 5-7 ft. Mainly moderate trades prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas are around 5-6 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and near 2-4 ft for the remainder of the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, building high pressure over the western Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Windward Passage through Mon night. Strong winds are expected in the lee of Cuba and the Dominican Republic Sat night through Sun night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N54W to 25N63W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along and within 120 nm NW of the front. Broad upper-level troughing is noted over the western Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 20N-30N between 63W-74W, enhanced by upper-level diffluence to the east of the upper-trough. Recent scatterometer data shows moderate winds north of 28N over the western Atlantic. Seas are 3-6 ft in this area. However, fresh to strong winds are prevalent south of 27N to the coasts of Cuba and Haiti, between 65W and the Florida Straits, where seas are quickly building now to 5-7 ft. These winds are occurring due to a strong pressure gradient in between a 1034 mb high pressure near the coast of New Jersey and a 1008 mb low pressure over Colombia. The eastern half of the Atlantic Ocean is dominated by a strong 1032 mb high pressure centered near 34N28W. The tight gradient attributed to this high center supports a large area of fresh to strong northeast to east winds from the ITCZ to 24N between 30W-57W, and from 10N-31N, east of 30W, as noted in recent ASCAT wind data. Recent altimeter passes show seas of 10-11 ft in this area, from 10N-23N between 25W-40W. The atmosphere is very dry and stable over the eastern Atlantic. An extensive area of African dust is observed over the far eastern Atlantic on satellite imagery. For the forecast W of 65W, high pressure will build over the western Atlantic this weekend. This will lead to a tight gradient which will bring strong easterly winds over most of the forecast waters today and Sun. Seas are expected to build to 13 ft east of the Bahamas starting tonight and continuing through Sun night. Conditions will improve on Mon as the high pressure shifts eastward and gradually weakens. Fresh southerly flow will develop east of northern Florida Sun into early next week. For the forecast east of 65W, moderate to fresh trades along with persistent northeast to east swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles to 55W through at least Wed. Seas will range between 8 to 9 ft in this area. Elsewhere, the large area of fresh to strong trades and large seas over the eastern half of the Atlantic will improve slightly late Sun into Mon. $$ Hagen