000 AXNT20 KNHC 050004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Mar 05 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from coastal Africa near 06N10W to 06N16W to 04N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 01N30W and to below the equator at 40W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 01N to 05N between 28W-32W, from 02S to 04N between 40W-50W and within 30 nm of line from 03N37W to 04N40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging is across the Gulf, keeping tranquil conditions in place. Gentle to moderate return flow covers the basin, where wave heights are relatively low, in the range of 1-3 ft. As for the forecast, high pressure will continue across the region. Gentle to moderate winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds over the southeastern Gulf tonight, including the Straits of Florida. Wave heights will range from 8-10 ft in the southeastern gulf waters. Fresh southerly return flow will develop over the NW Gulf through Sun night. A cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf on Mon, and reach from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The combination of strong high pressure centered east of New England with relatively lower pressure over the southern Caribbean and South America supports a gradient that is sustaining moderate to fresh northeast to east trades over the eastern half of the basin, and fresh to strong northeast trades in the south-central Caribbean, including the waters within 90 nm of Colombia as were indicated by earlier ASCAT data. Wave heights of 5-6 ft are over this part of the basin, except for higher wave heights of 6-8 ft over the southwestern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate northeast to east trades along with wave heights of 3-5 ft are elsewhere west of 75W. As for the forecast, the aforementioned strong high pressure over the western Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south- central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Windward Passage tonight through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds are possible in the lee of Cuba and the Dominican Republic Sat night through Sun night. Moderate to fresh trades along with persistent northeast to east swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through at least Wed. Wave heights will reach 8 or 9 ft with the strongest winds. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure is present over the western half of the southwestern north Atlantic. The associated gradient is maintaining generally moderate to fresh northeast winds south of 28N along with wave heights of 5-6 ft. Farther east, a stationary front stretches from near 31N54W southwest to 27N60W and to 24N64W, where it transitions to a trough to just inland the north-central section of Hispaniola. Another trough is analyzed from near 27N72W to the coast of eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Areas of rain, with embedded scattered showers and possible thunderstorms are along and within 30-60 nm northwest of the front from 28N-31N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 21N to 24N between 68W-75W. Patches of rain, with embedded scattered showers are from 24N to 28N and between 45W-72W. This activity is shifting eastward. To the east of the stationary front, the area is under the dominance of a strong high center of 1032 mb that is north of the discussion domain near 34N27W. The tight gradient associated to this high center supports quite a large area of fresh to strong northeast to east winds to the east of 54W and south of 24N as highlighted in the Latest ASCAT data passes over that part of the Atlantic. Wave heights with these winds are in the range of 10-12 ft. The atmosphere is very dry and stable over the eastern Atlantic as noted by the vast field of stratocumulus visible in satellite imagery. Interestingly for this time of year,an extensive area of African dust is being observed over this same area of the Atlantic on the GOES-E GeoColor imagery. As for the forecast W of 65W, high pressure will build over the western Atlantic during weekend. This will lead to a tight gradient which will bring fresh to strong easterly winds over most of the forecast waters. Wave heights are also expected to build to 12 ft east of the Bahamas by Sat night and continue through Sun night. Conditions will improve on Mon as the high pressure shifts eastward and gradually weakens. Fresh southerly flow will develop east of northern Florida Sun into early next week. $$ Aguirre