776 AXNT20 KNHC 041757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Mar 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1750 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Africa near 05N10W to 05N17W to 04N19W where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 0N33W to 0N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 06N between 01W and 14W, and from 02S to 06N between 29W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging is across the Gulf, keeping tranquil conditions in place. Gentle to moderate return flow covers the basin, where wave heights are in the range of 1 to 3 ft. As for the forecast, high pressure will prevail over the Gulf basin. Gentle to moderate winds will increase to fresh to strong over the SE Gulf tonight, including the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh return flow will develop over the remainder basin through Sun night. Otherwise, a cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf on Mon and reach from Alabama to the western Gulf on Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure centered about 330 nm NE of the northern Bahamas tightens the pressure gradient in the Caribbean and supports moderate to fresh trades over the eastern half of the basin and fresh to strong NE winds in the south-central Caribbean as indicated by recent scatterometer data. Seas of 5 to 6 ft dominate this region of the basin, except for seas to 8 ft in the SW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft are elsewhere west of 75W. As for the forecast, building high pressure over the western Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south- central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Windward Passage tonight through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds are possible in the lee of Cuba and the Dominican Republic Sat night through Sun night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades along with persistent northeast to east swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through at least Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface high pressure dominates across the SW N Atlantic waters supporting moderate to fresh NE winds south of 28N along with seas in the 5 to 6 ft range. Farther east, a former cold front has stalled from 31N53W to 27N59W where a surface trough continues SW towards NE Dominican Republic. The remainder Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores high, which is anchored by two 1034 mb centers of high pressure. This stronger pressure is supporting fresh to locally strong NE to E winds E of 45W and across the tropical Atlantic waters where seas range between 8 to 11 ft. As for the forecast W of 65W, high pressure will build over the western Atlantic during the upcoming weekend. This will lead to a tight gradient which will bring fresh to strong easterly winds over most of the forecast waters. Seas are also expected to build to 12 ft east of the Bahamas by Sat night and continue through Sun night. Conditions will improve on Mon as the high pressure shifts eastward and gradually weakens. Fresh southerly flow will develop east of northern Florida Sun into early next week. $$ Ramos