000 AXNT20 KNHC 040948 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Mar 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Africa near 09N13W to 03N17W where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is north of the boundaries from 00N to 05N between 20W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A high pressure center of 1024 mb remains over the north-central Gulf, keeping tranquil conditions in place. Gentle anticyclonic flow covers the basin, except for moderate NE to E winds in the SE Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche. Altimeter data and buoy observations show wave heights in the range of 1 to 3 ft throughout, except for slighter higher wave heights of 3 to 4 ft in the SE Gulf and the eastern Bay of Campeche. As for the forecast, high pressure centered over the north- central Gulf will continue to support gentle to moderate winds across the basin today. The pressure gradient is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf during the upcoming weekend as the strong high pressure shifts over the western Atlantic. This will bring fresh to strong east winds over the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, and fresh southerly return flow over the NW Gulf through Sun night. Seas will range from 8 to 10 ft across the SE gulf waters. A cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf on Mon and reach from Alabama to the western Gulf on Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Latest scatterometer data depicted fresh to strong E winds continuing within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia in the south- central Caribbean, while fresh to locally strong NE winds prevail south of 15N and in the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trade winds prevail north of 15N. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the eastern Caribbean, 4 to 7 ft in the central basin reaching heights of 9 ft off the coast of Colombia, and 3 ft or less in the NW basin. As for the forecast, building high pressure over the western Atlantic will support pulsing fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Windward Passage Fri night through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds are possible in the lee of Cuba and the Dominican Republic Sat night through Sun night. Moderate to fresh trades along with persistent northeast to east swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through at least Tue. Seas will range between 8 to 9 ft with the strongest winds. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is analyzed from near 31N53W to 28N57W. A surface trough extends SW from the end of the front to the U.S. Virgin Islands. High pressure is building behind the boundary, leaving gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and subsiding seas ranging from 3 to 5 ft in its wake in the western Atlantic. A recent scatterometer pass noted fresh S-SW winds within 90 nm ahead of the front and north of 29N. In the far eastern Atlantic, surface high pressure of 1032 mb is centered just north of the area near 32N30W. A ridge extends from this high center west-southwest to 27N50W. A tight gradient between this high and relatively lower pressure to the south is sustaining a large area of fresh to strong east winds south of about 25N and east of 61W, including over the Lesser Antilles. Wave heights with these winds are in the 8 to 11 ft range. In the far northeast part of the area, strong northeast winds are over and near the Canary Islands, and south of the Islands to 20N between the coast of Africa and 25W. As for the forecast W of 65W, the aforementioned cold front will continue weakening over the central Atlantic today. Strong high pressure will then build over the western Atlantic during the upcoming weekend. This will lead to a tight gradient which will bring fresh to strong easterly winds over most of the forecast waters. Seas are also expected to build to 12 ft east of the Bahamas by Sat night and continue through Sun night. Conditions will improve on Mon as the high pressure shifts eastward and gradually weakens. Fresh southerly flow will develop east of northern Florida Sun into early next week. $$ ERA