000 AXNT20 KNHC 022320 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Mar 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 00N22W to 02S29W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 10W and 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... Ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico anchored by a 1025 mb high near 30N93W. Moderate NE winds are noted off the SW Florida coast in the SE Gulf, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. No significant convection is noted over the basin. Seas are up to 3 ft. For the forecast, high pressure centered over the north-central Gulf will control the weather pattern over the region through the remainder of the week, resulting in gentle to moderate northeast to east winds across the forecast waters. The pressure gradient is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf during the upcoming weekend as the high pressure shifts eastward into the western Atlantic. This will bring fresh to occasionally strong east winds over the southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, and fresh southerly return flow over the NW Gulf through Sun night. A cold front may move into the NW Gulf Mon and reach from southeastern Louisiana to the western Gulf Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scatterometer from earlier in the day showed fresh to strong winds north of Colombia in the south-central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trade winds prevail across the rest of eastern and central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are noted in the NW basin. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW Caribbean near a surface trough extending in the Pacific, S of 11N between 73W and 82W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the eastern Caribbean, 4 to 7 ft in the central basin, and 3 ft or less in the NW basin. For the forecast, building high pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds through Fri night, then expand in coverage over the central Caribbean into next week. Moderate to fresh trades along with persistent northeast to east swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends off the Florida coast from 31N79W to 24N81W. Showers are noted within 50 nm of it. Another trough extends across the western Atlantic from 30N84W to near the northern Bahamas near 26N77W. No significant convection is noted with this feature. A cold front extends across the Atlantic from 31N61W to south of the Turks and Caicos near 20N73W. Showers are noted along and within 100 nm east of the front. Gentle to moderate winds are noted across the area with fresh southerly winds ahead of the front. Seas range 5 to 8 ft. High pressure ridging extends across the central and eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1032 mb high near 32N32W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted N of 28N and E of 46W with seas 5 to 7 ft. Fresh to strong easterly winds are noted S of 28N and E of the Lesser Antilles with seas 8 to 11 ft in northeast-east swell. For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front will stall and weaken over the southeast and south-central waters Thu through Fri night as high pressure builds behind it. Stronger high pressure will then build over the western Atlantic during the upcoming weekend, with the resultant tight gradient leading to fresh to strong easterly winds over most of the forecast waters. Seas will build to around 11 ft east of the Bahamas by Sat night with the increasing easterly flow. Conditions improve early next week as the high pressure shifts eastward and gradually weakens. Fresh southerly flow will develop east of northern Florida Sun into early next week. $$ AReinhart