000 AXNT20 KNHC 281732 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Feb 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning: The 24-hour forecast consists of a low pressure center that will be near 31N74W. A cold front will extend from the low pressure center to 23N81W. Expect gale-force winds, and sea heights to range from 9 feet to 12 feet, from 30N to 31N between 71W and 76.5W. Expect strong to near gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 10 feet, elsewhere from 29N to 31N between 64W and 81W. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 06N10W, to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to 02N20W, and then along 01N/02N to 41W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N southward from 52W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 07N to 09N between 32W and 34W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 31N73W, to inland sections of Florida near 28N83W, into the Gulf of Mexico near 23N90W, which is about 135 nm to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. The front becomes stationary from 23N90W, curving southwestward to the coastal sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered rain/rainshowers, cover the Gulf of Mexico. Earlier scatterometer data were showing strong to near gale-force winds in the SW corner of the area, from 24N southward from 93W westward. Mostly fresh winds are elsewhere to the north and northwest of the frontal boundary. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet in the eastern one-third of the area. Earlier data were showing sea heights that range from 7 feet to 12 feet from 20N to 27N between 94W and 97W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere. A surface ridge extends from a south central Texas high pressure center, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A gale-force wind warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec, on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. The current cold front, that extends from central Florida to the SW Gulf, will move across the Yucatan Channel tonight. Fresh to strong winds in the SW Gulf will diminish tonight, as the front passes SE of the region. High pressure will build into the southeastern U.S.A. during the middle and latter parts of the week, bringing gentle to moderate NE to E winds to the forecast waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh trade winds are in the south central Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate winds cover the reminder of the E and central parts of the basin. Mainly light and variable winds are in the NW Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet near the coast of Colombia, from 4 feet to 7 feet elsewhere, except from 2 feet to 4 feet in the NW Caribbean Sea. Patches of low level moisture, and isolated to widely scattered passing rainshowers, are embedded in the trade wind flow. Some of the patches of moisture are affecting and/or have been affecting the following areas: from 14N northward from Jamaica westward; to the south of the line from the coast of Nicaragua at 11N to 16N80W to 16N60W; Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Mainly fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will prevail near the coast of Colombia this week. Moderate to fresh trade winds along with persistent NE to E swell will impact the waters that are to the east of the Lesser Antilles for the next several days. A weakening cold front will move across the Yucatan Channel tonight, and dissipate in the NW Caribbean Sea early on Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning. A cold front passes through 31N73W, to inland sections of Florida near 28N83W, into the Gulf of Mexico near 23N90W, which is about 135 nm to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. The front becomes stationary from 23N90W, curving southwestward to the coastal sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the areas that are from 20N northward from 60W westward. Fresh to strong winds are from 30N northward from 76W westward, to the north of the cold front. Strong to near gale-force NE winds are within 200 nm of the coast of Africa from 25N to the Canary Islands. Mostly fresh, to isolated strong, NE winds are elsewhere within 1800 nm to the west of the coast of Africa from 06N to 24N. Moderate winds or slower are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 60W eastward. Some areas of 5 feet to 7 feet are from 20N to 30N between 50W and 60W. A surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure center that is near 32N25W, through 30N34W 29N43W 28N56W, to the NW Bahamas, to the Straits of Florida. A low pressure area is expected to develop by this evening, along the current cold front that is moving through the northern forecast waters. The low pressure center will produce strengthening winds and building seas in the far northern part of the area, from tonight through Tuesday night, with gale-force winds expected N of 30N on Tuesday. The low pressure center is forecast to weaken by midweek, but the cold front will continue moving eastward across the region. High pressure is expected to build across the western Atlantic Ocean late this week behind the front. $$ mt/br