000 AXNT20 KNHC 281013 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Feb 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A recent scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of gale force winds over the SW Gulf, including the Veracruz region, while an altimeter pass indicates seas up to 12 ft within this area. Fresh to strong northerly winds are also noted S of 26N and W of 94W including the Tampico area. These winds are in the wake of a cold front extending from northern Florida to the central Bay of Campeche. Winds will diminish below gale force early this morning but fresh to strong NW-N winds will persist over the SW Gulf today. Seas will gradually subside below 8 ft by tonight. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 00N20W. The ITCZ continues from 00N20W to 04N40W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within about 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 35W and 46W. Scattered moderate convection is where the monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean, and also near 01N22W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weather conditions across the Gulf of Mexico are associated with a cold front extending from northern Florida to the central Bay of Campeche. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. Low level clouds, with embedded areas of light rain are associated with the front. A surface trough is analyzed over the Yucatan peninsula. High pressure of 1028 mb located near Brownsville, Texas follow the front. This system will move eastward across the north Gulf states through mid-week. For the forecast, please, see the Special Features section for details. CARIBBEAN SEA... The most recent scatterometer data indicate fresh trades over the south-central Caribbean and gentle to moderate winds across the reminder of the E and central parts of the basin. Mainly light and variable winds are over the NW Caribbean. Seas are 6-8 ft near the coast of Colombia, and 4-7 ft elsewhere, except 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean. Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are observed across the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Some of these patches of moisture are currently affecting parts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola as well as Jamaica and the Gulf of Honduras. Multilayer clouds, with possible showers, associated with strong upper-level westerly winds continue to affect the Windward Islands. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds near the coast of Colombia tonight, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail through Fri. Moderate to fresh trades are also expected across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles, with seas of 6-9 ft in NE to E swell. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. A weakening cold front will move across the Yucatan Channel and the far NW Caribbean tonight into Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1018 mb high pressure is located near 28N75W and dominates the Bahamas and SE Florida. Light and variable winds are noted under the influence of this system, particularly N of 22N and W of 65W. S of 22N and W of 65W, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 5 to 7 ft east of the Bahamas based on buoy observations and altimeter data. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a 1027 mb high pressure located near 30N29W. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressures over W Africa supports near gale-force northerly winds within about 60 nm of the coast of Morocco in the Meteo-France marine zones of Agadir and north of Tarfaya. Near gale force winds are also occurring between the Canary Islands. These winds are generating rough seas of 12-13 ft near the coast of Morocco. Fresh to locally strong trades are also noted per scatterometer data N of the ITCZ to about 20N and E of 50W, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas are 8-10 ft within these winds. For the forecast west of 65W, weather conditions are forecast to deteriorate across the SW N Atlantic late today into tonight. A reinforcing high pressure will allow a cold front to move across the northern forecast waters today, with a low pressure likely developing along the front E of Florida by this evening. The low pressure is forecast to move NE with the front reaching the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida by tonight. Then, the front is forecast to move across the SE waters by Tue evening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front and near the low pressure late today through late Tue night. For the forecast east of 65W, high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across region over the next two or three days. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressure over W Africa, and also in the vicinity of the ITCZ will maintain a belt of fresh to locally strong trade winds across the tropical Atlantic, mainly E of 50W through Tue. These winds will reach 55W on Wed. $$ GR