000 AXNT20 KNHC 270326 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Feb 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia will support NE trades to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight. Winds will diminish to below gale force prior to sunrise Sun morning. Seas will range from 8 to 10 ft during the gale event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to 03N between 14W and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01S to 01N between 34W and 44W. GULF OF MEXICO... A nearly stationary front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from north-central Florida near 29.5N83W to weak 1020 mb low pressure off the coast of Texas near 27.5N95W. The stationary front then continues south from 27.5N95W to Tuxpan Mexico near 20N96.5W. Low stratus and areas of dense fog prevail within about 60 to 90 nm of the coasts of Texas and western Louisiana. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are west and north of the front, off the Texas and Louisiana coasts. Gentle to moderate wind speeds prevail over the remainder of the Gulf, except locally fresh through the Straits of Florida, and offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 4 to 6 ft near the front offshore of Louisiana, Texas and Mexico. Seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere, except for 1 to 3 ft in the NE Gulf. For the forecast, a reinforcing high pressure will push the front eastward across the Gulf waters tonight and Sun. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front on Sun and Sun night. The front will gradually move southeast of the basin early next week. High pressure will settle across the area by mid-week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please read the Special Features section for details. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail over much of the Caribbean, except for fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean around the Gale Warning area, with fresh to strong NE winds across the approach to the Windward Passage. Seas are 4-6 ft across the basin, except for 6 to 8 ft off Colombia and eastern Panama. Mid to upper-level ridging dominates the western Caribbean. However, patches of trade wind cumulus with possible isolated showers are noted near Jamaica and also across and offshore of Honduras and Nicaragua. Over the eastern Caribbean, a surface trough extends from the Anegada Passage northeast into the Atlantic. Cloudiness with a few showers prevails over the southeastern Caribbean Sea, as well as across western Puerto Rica and the Mona Passage. Total Precipitable Water imagery shows a plume of enhanced atmospheric moisture that has moved into the SE Caribbean over the last day or two. For the forecast, winds will pulse to minimal gale-force offshore of Colombia tonight into early Sun morning. Fresh to locally strong NE winds will pulse through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through early Sun. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean. A weak cold front will approach the NW Caribbean early next week. Moderate to fresh trades east of the Lesser Antilles will prevail through the remainder of the weekend, helping to build seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... In the western Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 31N78W to Titusville Florida near 29N81W. High pressure of 1025 mb is noted east of the front near 30N70.5W. Light to gentle winds prevail across the region north of 28N with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail farther south, including from the Bahamas to Cuba and Hispaniola. Seas are 5 to 7 ft east of the Bahamas. Farther east, a 1029 mb high pressure is analyzed near 31N29W. A surface ridge with light to gentle winds extends westward from the high to 30N60W, as well as northeast of the high to the coast of Portugal. Seas are 5 to 6 ft near the ridge axis. Fresh to strong trade winds prevail from 07N to 23N between 35W and 55W, where seas are 8 to 10 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail over much of the eastern Atlantic, east of 35W, where seas are 7 to 11 ft. A couple of surface troughs are southwest of the ridging, one from 27N59W to near the Anegada Passage, and another from 27N48W to 25N55W. Isolated showers are possible near both troughs. For the forecast west of 65W, a reinforcing high pressure will allow the front to move across the northern forecast waters on Mon with a low pressure possibly developing along the front east of NE Florida by late Sun into Sun night. The low is forecast to move northeast dragging the front across the forecast region through mid- week. For the forecast east of 65W, moderate to fresh trades, locally strong, east of the Lesser Antilles will prevail through the remainder of the weekend, maintaining seas of 7 to 9 ft west of 55W, and 7 to 10 ft east of 55W. Strong to locally near gale force NE winds will develop tonight between the Canary Islands and the coast of Morocco, generating seas of 10 to 12 ft. These conditions will persist into Tue. $$ Lewitsky