000 AXNT20 KNHC 251842 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Feb 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia will again support pulsing NE trades to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight into early Sat. Winds will be near gale-force Sat night into early Sun. Seas will range between 8 to 11 ft during the gale event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues to 04N18W. The ITCZ then extends from 04N18W to 02N21W to 03N39W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the equator to 04N between 21W and 32W. This morning's scatterometer pass detected strong to near gale force winds within this area of convection. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 25/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida/Alabama border to 27N93W. A stationary front continues through the western Gulf from 27N93W to 25N95W to just south of Tampico, Mexico, near 21N97W. Any patchy fog ahead of the front should lift by late morning local time. Isolated showers cannot be ruled out near the boundary. Recent surface observations depict fresh to strong NE winds behind the front, and a satellite altimeter pass indicates seas of mainly 4-6 ft. However, 6-9 ft seas are analyzed in the far west- central Gulf within 120 nm of the coast of Mexico. A surface trough is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche, with no associated convection at this time. The rest of the Gulf of Mexico is dominated by a ridge of high pressure that extends across northern Florida. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds are present in the SE Gulf and off NW Yucatan. Seas in these parts of the Gulf are 3 to 6 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the Straits of Florida. The rest of the basin experiences moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will slowly move east and extend from the FL/AL border to the SW Gulf by this evening, and then may retrograde toward the Gulf coast through the first part of the weekend. A reinforcing push will move the front eastward again by Sun, with the front gradually moving southeast of the basin early next week. Fresh to strong northerly winds are possible in the west- central and SW Gulf behind the front Sun afternoon into early Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please read the Special Features section for details. Strong trades persist near the coast of Colombia in the south- central Caribbean, with seas of 8-10 ft. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades in the Windward Passage and central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate trades in the eastern and western Caribbean. Seas are 3-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean, 6-8 ft in the central Caribbean outside of the area of strong winds, and 4-6 ft in the western Caribbean. Isolated showers are possible in patches of low level moisture embedded within the trades. For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale-force offshore of Colombia tonight through early Sat and once again on Sat night. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the lee of Cuba through early Sat. Similar winds will pulse through the approach to the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through early Sun. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean through Sun morning. A weak cold front may move into the NW Caribbean Sun night. Fresh to strong trades will develop east of the Lesser Antilles tonight, then moderate to fresh through the remainder of the weekend, helping to build seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three surface troughs are analyzed in the W Atlantic with the following positions: 30N63W to 21N68W, 23N56W to 19N58W, and 16N56W to 11N61W. No significant convection is noted with any of the troughs at this time. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds, guided by high pressure north of the area, prevails over the eastern and central Atlantic. Winds turn to the SE and diminish to mainly moderate speeds west of the Bahamas. Seas are 3-6 ft W of 70W, 6-10 ft in areas of NE swell over the south-central and north- eastern portions of the discussion area, and 6-8 ft elsewhere. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure near 29N77W and a trough of low pressure near 66W will support moderate to fresh winds E of 70W. The pressure gradient will continue to relax later today and tonight allowing for improving marine conditions. A weak cold front may move into the NE Florida waters Sat where it will stall. A reinforcing push will move the front southeast into early next week, with low pressure possibly developing along it east of northern Florida. The low would then drag the front southeast through mid-week $$ Mahoney