000 AXNT20 KNHC 250425 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Feb 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support pulsing NE trades to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night through early Sunday. Seas will range between 8 to 11 ft during the gale event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast of Guinea near 10N13W and continues to 05N17W. The ITCZ then extends from 05N17W to 02N33W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 17W and 44W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from SW Louisiana to 27N95W, where it transitions into a stationary front that continues to the coast of Tamaulipas near 23N98W. Marine fog and light, isolated showers continue to affect the waters behind the frontal boundary. A couple of surface troughs are found in the eastern and western Bay of Campeche, but no significant convection is associated with these features. The rest of the Gulf of Mexico is dominated by a 1023 mb high pressure system positioned over the Big Bend region of Florida. Fresh to locally strong anticyclonic winds are present in the SE Gulf, off NW Yucatan and behind the cold front in the offshore Texas waters. Seas in these parts of the Gulf are 3-6 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the Florida Straits. The rest of the basin experiences moderate or weaker winds and seas of 1-3 ft. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will slowly shift east and extend from the FL/AL border to the SW Gulf by Fri evening, then may retrograde through the first part of the weekend. A reinforcing push will move the front eastward again by Sun, with the front gradually moving southeast of the basin early next week. Fresh to strong northerly winds are possible in the west-central and SW Gulf behind the front Sun afternoon into early Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please read the Special Features section for details. Fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail across the Caribbean Sea. Recent scatterometer satellite data and surface observations indicate that fresh to strong trades are affecting the north-central Caribbean Sea, Windward Passage and the lee of Cuba. The strongest winds are found across the offshore waters of Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted in the western and eastern Caribbean. Seas of 4-7 ft are present in the north- central, SW and W Caribbean Sea, while seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent in the E Caribbean. For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale-force offshore of Colombia at night through early Sun. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the lee of Cuba through early Sat. Similar winds will pulse through the approach to the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through early Sun. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean through Sat night. A weak cold front may move into the NW Caribbean Sun night. Fresh to strong trades will develop east of the Lesser Antilles Fri night, then moderate to fresh through the remainder of the weekend, helping to build seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Water vapor satellite imagery depict a large upper level low well NE of the Leeward Islands moving slowly westward. At the surface, a couple of troughs are identified from 31N60W to 23N61W and from 19N57W to 26N59W. Scattered weak showers are found E of the surface troughs, especially from 21N to 25N and W of 51W. The pressure gradient between the surface troughs and a 1027 mb high pressure system near 32N71W results in fresh to strong NE winds W of 64W to the Bahamas and from the western and central Greater Antilles to 30N, including the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas of 6-10 ft are present in the region described. The waters offshore Florida and NW Bahamas are experiencing moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft. Recent scatterometer satellite data depict a large region of fresh to strong anticyclonic winds covering most of the central and eastern Atlantic, especially E of 60W. This is due to the strong 1035 mb high pressure located NE of the Azores and lower pressures in the deep tropics. Seas are 6-10 ft in the areas mentioned. An altimeter satellite pass from a few hours ago captured seas up to 11 ft over the central Atlantic, about 500 nm SE of Bermuda. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure near 31N and a trough of low pressure just east of 65W will support fresh to strong NE winds from 22N to 27N and east of 70W overnight, along with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere south of 27N. The pressure gradient will relax Fri and Fri night allowing for improving marine conditions. A weak cold front may move into the NE Florida waters Sat where it will stall. A reinforcing push will move the front southeast into early next week, with low pressure possibly developing along it east of northern Florida. The low would then drag the front southeast through mid-week. $$ DELGADO