113 AXNT20 KNHC 241721 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Feb 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support pulsing NE trades to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night through Sat night. Seas will range between 8 to 11 ft during the gale event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W extending SW to 03N17W. The ITCZ then continues from 03N17W to 01N30W to 02N40W to 01N46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from the equator to 05N between 16W and 22W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 01S to 03N between 35W and 41W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front continues to reach across the NW Gulf, extending from Marsh Island, Louisiana SW to La Pesca, Mexico. Overcast skies remain behind the front, with moderate NE breezes. Surface ridging is elsewhere ahead of the front, allowing for moderate to fresh ESE winds in the eastern and southern Gulf, including the Florida Straits and eastern Bay of Campeche, with mainly moderate flow elsewhere. Recent altimeter and buoy data indicate seas of 3 to 5 ft across the basin For the forecast, the stationary front will weaken today. A stronger cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf late tonight, reaching from near Mobile, Alabama to Brownsville, Texas Fri afternoon, then weaken as it reaches from north-central Florida to 27N89W, and then stationary to extreme southern Texas late Fri. Low pressure is expected to form offshore extreme southern Texas on Sat along the western part of the front, and shift SSE through Sun as it dissipates. The cold front will weaken as it continues to the SE Gulf by late Mon. Strong north winds will follow the front over the far western Gulf on Sun and Sun night. Otherwise, strong east winds will develop off the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please read the Special Features section for details. A dry air mass dominates the Caribbean Sea, allowing only shallow patches of moisture to ride the trades producing weak, isolated showers. The pressure gradient over the Caribbean continues to support fresh to strong E winds over the central and northwestern Caribbean. Mainly strong winds are south of Hispaiola to 15N and within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Strong NE winds are noted within the Windward passage and the lee side of Cuba by a recent scatterometer pass. Moderate seas are across the basin, except off the coast of Colombia where rough seas are up to 11 ft. For the forecast, strong high pressure over the northern half of the Caribbean will continue to support gale force NE winds off the coast of Colombia and fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, south of Hispaniola and across the Windward Passage through Fri night. Gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia is forecast again on Sat night. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean Sun night followed by moderate to fresh N to NE winds. The front will weaken as it reaches from eastern Cuba to the NE part of Honduras Mon night. Otherwise, moderate trade winds over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles will increase to fresh speeds Fri afternoon and continue through Sun along with building seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The tropical Atlantic is dominated by two strong areas of high pressure, with a broad surface trough in between. The Bermuda subtropical ridge prevails over the western Atlantic, maintaining tranquil weather conditions, moderate seas, and gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow north of the Bahamas and W of 70W. The trough axis stretches from 30N60W to 19N54W. Recent satellite scatterometer data depicts fresh to locally strong NNE winds on the W side of the trough to 70W and fresh NE winds south of 27N and west of 70W, including over the Bahamas. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in NE to E swell, except over the Bahamas seas are 5 to 7 ft. East of the trough, the scatterometer data revealed an area of strong SE winds from 22N to 29N between 45W and 60W. Winds are near gale force from 22N and 25N between 51N and 55W. Seas heights range from 9 to 12 ft and up to 13 ft in the area of the strongest winds. The rest of the Atlantic is dominated by the Azores subtropical ridge, found just NW of the Azores, along with fresh to strong NE flow and 8 to 10 ft seas. For the forecast west of 65W, the tightening gradient between high pressure across the area and the broad trough will continue to support fresh to locally strong NE winds mainly over the offshore waters S of 27N through Fri. Afterward, moderate to fresh northeast winds will dominate the region through Sat night. The next cold front will move off the NE Florida coast Sun evening. It will reach from near 31N68W to 27N20W and to west-central Cuba early Mon and from near 27N65W to eastern Cuba Mon night. $$ Mora