000 AXNT20 KNHC 241029 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Feb 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support pulsing NE trades to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night through Sat night. Seas will range between 8 to 11 ft during the gale event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N18W. The ITCZ then continues from 03N18W to 01N34W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 0N to 07N between 11W and 24W, and from 0N to 08N W of 32W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from Marsh Island, Louisiana SW to La Pesca, Mexico. Surface ridging is elsewhere ahead of the front, which 1023 mb center of high pressure is located over the NE gulf. The ridge continue to provide moderate to fresh return flow ahead of the front with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range as indicated by recent altimeter data. For the forecast, the stationary front will weaken today. A stronger cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf late tonight, reach from near Mobile, Alabama to Brownsville, Texas Fri afternoon, then weaken as it reaches from north-central Florida to 27N89W, and stationary to extreme southern Texas late Fri. Low pressure is expected to form offshore extreme southern Texas on Sat along the western part of the front, and shift SSE through Sun as it dissipates. The cold front will weaken as it continues to the SE Gulf by late Mon. Strong north winds will follow the front over the far western Gulf on Sun and Sun night. Otherwise, strong east winds will develop off the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please read the Special Features section for details. A dry airmass dominates the Caribbean Sea, only allowing shallow patches of moisture to ride the trades producing weak, isolated showers. Surface ridging extending S into the western Caribbean continue to support fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward passage and the lee side of Cuba with seas in the 7-8 ft range. Gale force winds are within 90 nm off the coast of Coloombia with seas in the 8 to 11 ft range. For the forecast, strong high pressure over the northern half of the Caribbean will continue to support gale force NE winds off the coast of Colombia and fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, south of Hispaniola and across the Windward Passage through Fri night. Gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia is forecast again on Sat night. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean Sun night followed by moderate to fresh N to NE winds. The front will weaken as it reaches from eastern Cuba to the NE part of Honduras Mon night. Otherwise, moderate trade winds over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles will increase to fresh speeds Fri afternoon and continue through Sun along with building seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The tropical Atlantic is dominated by two strong areas of high pressure. The Bermuda subtropical ridge prevails over the western Atlantic, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions W of 60W. A weak surface trough is found just NE of the NW Bahamas, but this feature is not producing any significant convection. The Azores subtropical ridge is found just NW of the Azores and it is the prevalent feature over the central and eastern tropical Atlantic. In between these ridges we find a surface trough and low pressure system near 20N52W. Another trough is present along 57W and extends from 24N31W. Scattered convection is noted to the east of these features, especially N of 18N and W of 47W. The pressure gradient as the result of the robust Azores high and the surface troughs allow for strong to near gale-force SE winds N of 20N and between 44W and 57W as confirmed by recent satellite-derived wind data. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are occurring N of 20N and between 60W and 69W. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are also found in the central and eastern Bahamas to the coasts of Cuba and Hispaniola, with the strongest winds affecting the entrance to the Windward Passage. Fresh to locally strong anticyclonic winds are prevalent north of the deep tropics and E of 44W. Seas greater than 8 ft are found N of 18N and between 17W and 66W. Seas greater than 12 ft are present from 23N to 28N and between 50W and 55W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-8 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 65W, a tightening gradient between high pressure across the area and a broad trough to the east will support fresh to locally strong NE winds mainly over the offshore waters S of 27N through Fri. Afterwards, moderate to fresh northeast winds will dominate the region through Sat night. The next cold front will move off the NE Florida coast Sun evening. It will reach from near 31N68W to 27N20W and to west-central Cuba early Mon and from near 27N65W to eastern Cuba Mon night. $$ Ramos