426 AXNT20 KNHC 221738 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Feb 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High in the western Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to support pulsing NE winds to gale- force near the coast of Colombia nightly through Fri. The sea heights will range from 10-12 ft within the strongest winds. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends into the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 06N17W to 02N21W where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W to 2N30W to 01N39W. Scattered moderate convection remains well south of the monsoon trough axis, located within 90 nm of the coasts of Liberia and Sierra Leone. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from the Bermuda high across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, while a surface trough reaches from NE Mexico to the SW Gulf. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico is generating moderate to fresh southeasterly flow across a majority of the Gulf with mainly fresh winds in the central and NW Gulf. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the eastern and southern Gulf, 3 to 5 ft in the central Gulf, and 4 to 6 ft in the NW Gulf. For the forecast, surface ridging and moderate to fresh return flow prevail across the Gulf, except for fresh to strong winds over the NW offshore waters. These conditions are forecast to continue through early Thu evening with winds pulsing to strong speeds at night off the northern Yucatan peninsula. A cold front is expected to enter the far NW Gulf Thu night, bringing strong N winds to portions of the northern and western Gulf for the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia. The gradient between the Bermuda High in the western Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure over Colombia is producing strong to gale NE winds over the south-central Caribbean, noted in a satellite scatterometer pass from 1500 UTC. Fresh NE winds are also noted in the Windward Passage and are also likely south of Cuba. Elsewhere the easterly trades are moderate to fresh. Rough seas to 11 ft are present over the south-central Caribbean while moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off the Colombian coast each night through Fri. Fresh to strong northeast winds in the lee side of Cuba, south of Hispaniola, and across the Windward Passage will prevail through Sat. Otherwise, moderate trade winds over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles will increase to fresh speeds Fri night and continue through the remainder weekend along with building seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Ridging from the Bermuda high extends across the western Atlantic to central Florida allowing for dry conditions and moderate easterly winds west of 65W. A recent altimeter pass and buoy observations depicted moderate seas in this region. Farther east, a surface trough stretches from 31N54W to 20N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the trough, north of 25N. The tightening gradient between high pressure building over the area and the broad trough supports fresh to strong NE winds mainly north of 27N and west of the trough. Meanwhile, east of the trough, moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow is noted north of 20N and west of 30W. A weak surface low along a surface trough is located SW of the Canary Islands, allowing for fresh to strong NW winds north of the islands and west of 22W. Rough seas cover a majority of the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between high pressure building over the area and the broad trough will continue to support fresh to locally strong NE winds mainly over the offshore waters S of 27N from today through Fri morning. Afterward, moderate to fresh NE winds will dominate the region through Sat night. $$ Mora