000 AXNT20 KNHC 181739 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Feb 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient due to strong Atlantic high pressure interacting with low pressure in northern Colombia will continue to induce gale-force winds pulsing offshore northern Colombia at night, each night through the middle of next week, with winds possibly reaching 40 kt at times. The wave heights will range from 11-14 ft, with the highest during the early morning hours. A recent ASCAT satellite wind data pass from 18/1454 UTC shows near gale force NE-ENE winds from 11N to 12.5N between 74W and 76W, with winds as high as 33 kt. A recent satellite altimeter pass from 18/1200 UTC measured significant wave heights as high as 14 ft in the vicinity of 11.7N 76.2W, with 12-14 ft waves occurring from 10.5N to 12.5N along the satellite's path, which was along 76W at the time. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 18/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from Apalachicola, Florida to 23N95W to Veracruz, Mexico. Northerly winds over the NW Gulf have now diminished to fresh to strong. However, a recent ASCAT data pass from 18/1632 UTC shows near-gale to gale force NW to N winds extending from offshore of Tampico, Mexico to offshore of Veracruz, Mexico, within 150 nm of the coast. Gale force winds are expected to continue through this afternoon offshore of Veracruz, with seas to 10 ft. The front will shift eastward, then weaken as it reaches from near Ft. Myers, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Sat morning. Winds will diminish below gale force tonight. However, strong to near gale force NW winds will continue offshore Veracruz, and in the west-central Bay of Campeche, through Sat evening before diminishing. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both Gale Warnings. East Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong high pressure centered over the Azores combined with a surface trough approaching the Morocco offshore waters will induce gale force north winds within about 120 nm of the coast of Morocco on Sat in the marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya, according to the latest forecast from Meteo France. Seas in the area will build to 13-14 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends westward from the coast of southern Guinea near 09N13W to 09N16W, and southwestward to near 03N25W. The ITCZ extends from 03N25W to 00N39W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is evident on satellite from 03N to 08N between 07W and 16W. Scattered showers are noted south of 04N between 20W and 32W, and from 02N to 04N between 38W and 49W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details about the gale warning in the SW Gulf area. A cold front is analyzed from Apalachicola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico. Conditions presently west of the front are described above under Special Features. Gentle S winds are east of the front, over the eastern Gulf, where the latest buoy and altimeter data indicates seas generally 3 to 4 ft. Isolated showers and tstorms are ahead of the front over the east-central Gulf. As for the forecast, the cold front will weaken as it reaches from near Ft. Myers, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Sat morning, then dissipate across the eastern Gulf region on Sun as high pressure builds across the southeastern U.S. Moderate to fresh return flow will develop over the Gulf early next week, except for fresh to strong winds over the north-central Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details about the pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia. Relative dry air prevails in the mid- to upper-levels over the western and central Caribbean, with a few showers noted near Puerto Rico associated with the trade wind flow. The latest ASCAT pass shows mainly fresh winds across the eastern and central Caribbean, with strong to near gale force winds in the central to southwest Caribbean. Seas are 5-7 ft over the eastern Caribbean and 7-9 ft in the central Caribbean, except 9-14 ft in the south- central basin. Moderate trades prevail over the northwest Caribbean, where seas are 3-5 ft. As for the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia each night through Tue night, while fresh to strong trade winds will dominate most of the east and central Caribbean today. Fresh to strong northeast winds will funnel through the Windward Passage through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The weather pattern is dominated by a very strong 1044 mb high pressure in the north-central Atlantic well to the N of the area near 40N38W. This is creating an enhanced gradient with lower pressure near the ITCZ and South America. As a result, fresh or stronger easterly winds dominate the majority of the basin, north of the ITCZ and east of 65W. The winds become more moderate southerly in the western Atlantic, west of 70W, where weak ridging is in place. A shear line extends across the northern portion of the discussion area in the central Atlantic from near 31N29W to 28N48W. Scattered showers are noted from 21N-30N between 41W-57W, enhanced by an upper-level trough. The latest scatterometer satellite data passes indicate an extensive swath of near gale- force northeast winds north of the shear line with fresh to strong winds to the south. Altimeter data passes from this morning show wave heights of 13-15 ft to the north of the shear line, with wave heights of 8-12 ft reaching as far south as 12N. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail east of 35W and south of 25N. For the forecast west of 60W, strong high pressure located N of the area will shift eastward allowing for the next cold front to move off northern Florida by Fri evening. The front will reach from near 31N75W to near Lake Okeechobee by Sat morning, and from near 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Sun morning. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the front today, north of 29N. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast in the wake of the front Sat night into Sun. High pressure in the wake of the front will control the weather pattern in the region for the remainder of the forecast period. For the forecast east of 60W, fresh to strong trade winds and building seas will continue through today over the tropical north Atlantic waters, east of the Lesser Antilles. Strong NE winds and seas of 9 to 14 ft will continue over the waters north of 15N and east of 40W through Sun night. $$ Hagen/Hogsett