000 AXNT20 KNHC 181038 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Feb 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient due to strong Atlantic high pressure interacting with low pressure in northern Colombia will continue to induce gale-force winds pulsing offshore northern Colombia at night, with winds possibly reaching 40 kt at times. The wave heights will range from 11-13 ft, with the highest during the early morning hours. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from southeastern Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico. Strong north winds, with frequent gusts to gale force and building seas are occurring over the NW Gulf. Overnight ASCAT satellite data pass reveals a large area of 30 kt north winds, with embedded wind vectors of 34-36 kt over the NW Gulf W of 94W. The latest altimeter data pass has wave heights of 8-10 ft from 27N to 29N and between 93W- 97W. A few of the latest buoy report wave heights approaching 11 ft. The frequent gusts to gale-force winds will become strong north to northeast winds around mid-morning. The front will reach from the western Florida panhandle to 24N94W and to the western Bay of Campeche by this morning, then weaken as it reaches from near Ft. Myers, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Sat morning. As the front advances south-southeastward, sustained gale-force northwest to north winds along with wave heights of 8-12 ft will develop in the SW Gulf near Veracruz this afternoon and evening. Winds will diminish to just below gale-force late tonight as the gradient slackens a little. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both Gale Warnings. East Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force north winds are expected to develop Sat in the marine zone of Agadir according to the latest forecast from Meteo France. Seas in the area will build to 13-14 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of southern Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 06N17W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 03S36W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 24W-31W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm south of the ITCZ between 26W-32W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details about the gale warnings in the NW and SW Gulf areas. A cold front is analyzed from near New Orleans southwestward to 27N95W and to Tampico, Mexico. Conditions presently behind the front are as described above under Special Features. The earlier fresh to strong southerly winds that were over the north-central Gulf have diminished to moderate to fresh speeds, with wave heights of 5-6 ft. Elsewhere to the E of the front, winds are generally gentle to moderate, south to southwest in direction N of 26N and southeast to south S of 26N. Wave heights with these winds are in the 3-5 ft range. Winds in the SW Gulf are gentle to moderate, east to southeast in direction, along with wave heights of 3-5 ft. Patches of broken and mid-level clouds are within 30 nm either of line from 30N89W to 28N92W, and within 45 nm either side of a line from 28N92W to 26N95W and to 22N97W. Patches of dense fog are out ahead of the front along and just inland sections of the north-central and NE Gulf. As for the forecast, the frequent gusts to gale-force winds will become strong north to northeast winds this morning. The front will reach from the western Florida panhandle to 24N94W and to the western Bay of Campeche by this morning, then weaken as it reaches from near Ft. Myers, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Sat morning. Sustained gale-force northwest to north winds will develop in the SW Gulf near Veracruz this afternoon and evening. The front will dissipate across the Gulf region on Sun as high pressure builds across the southeastern U.S. Moderate to fresh return flow will develop over the Gulf early next week, except for fresh to strong winds over the north-central Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details about the pulsing gale-force winds offshore Colombia. The gradient between a strong 1043 mb high pressure in the north- central Atlantic and a 1007 mb low over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds through the majority of the central and eastern Caribbean with gale force winds near the coast of Colombia. As wind speed and fetch area increases, wave heights build from moderate in the eastern Caribbean to rough in the central Caribbean. Conditions are more favorable in the northwestern Caribbean, with moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas. As for the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia each night through Tue night, while fresh to strong trade winds will dominate most of the east and central Caribbean today. Fresh to strong northeast winds will funnel through the Windward Passage through Tue night. Otherwise, fresh to strong trade winds and building seas will continue over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles through today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The weather pattern is dominated by a very strong 1043 mb high pressure in the north-central Atlantic well to the N of the area near 39N42W. This is creating an enhanced gradient with lower pressure near the ITCZ and South America. As a result, fresh easterly winds dominate the majority of the basin, becoming more southerly in the western Atlantic. A shear line extends across the northern portion of the discussion area in the central Atlantic from near 31N37W to 29N45W and to 28N58W. The latest scatterometer satellite data passes indicate an extensive swath of of strong to near gale-force northeast to east winds north of this feature with moderate to fresh winds to the south. Overnight altimeter data passes note wave heights of 12-15 ft to the north of the shear line, with wave heights of 8-12 ft reaching as far south as 12N. A lighter gradient in the eastern Atlantic is keeping moderate trades and wave heights there. For the forecast west of 60W, strong high pressure located N of the area will shift eastward allowing for the next cold front to move off northern Florida by this evening. The front will reach from 31N75W to near Lake Okeechobee by Sat morning, and from near 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Sun morning. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the front today. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast in the wake of the front Sat night into Sun. High pressure in the wake of the front will control the weather pattern in the region for the remainder of the forecast period. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France for updates on the potential gale force winds in the eastern Atlantic this weekend. Website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html $$ Aguirre