000 AXNT20 KNHC 170740 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Feb 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Atlantic Ocean high pressure combined with low pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support gales pulsing offshore northern Colombia at night through Mon night, with winds possibly reaching 40 kt at times. The sea heights will range from 12 feet to 13 feet, highest during the morning hours. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to move off the Texas coast and enter the western Gulf on Thu followed by strong to near gale-force winds and building seas. Frequent gusts to gale-force are forecast for the NW Gulf including the Texas coastal waters. The front is forecast to extend from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening with gale- force winds and building seas ranging from 6 to 10 ft affecting the Veracruz offshore waters Fri afternoon and evening. The front will then move very slowly southeast, gradually pushing across the basin through early Sun while washing out. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and extends to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 02N23W to 02N32W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 14W and 32W, and within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 17W and 24W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a gale warning for the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure ridging is extending across the southeast U.S. north of the basin. Moderate to locally fresh return flow is across the basin, except for fresh to strong SE winds over the NW Gulf and also in the SE through north-central Gulf extending northwest from the Straits of Florida. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in the NW Gulf, 7 to 9 ft in the SE through north-central Gulf, and 3 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the next cold front is expected to enter the western Gulf today with fresh to strong winds behind, except frequent gusts to gale-force in the NW Gulf late Fri night, and sustained gale-force winds in the SW Gulf near Veracruz Fri afternoon and evening. The front will move very slowly southeast, gradually pushing across the basin through early Sun while washing out. Moderate to fresh return flow will dominate early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on pulsing gale conditions offshore Colombia. Mainly fresh to strong winds dominate the eastern and central Caribbean, as well as the Windward Passage as a result of the tight pressure gradient induced by the strong high pressure north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia. Seas east of 80W, including within the Windward Passage, range from 6 to 9 ft. The exception is south of 15N to the coast of Colombia, seas are 8 to 13 ft. Fresh winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted in the NW Caribbean, except fresh to strong in the immediate Lee of Cuba early this morning. For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia each night through Mon night, while strong winds will expand in areal coverage across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea through today. Fresh to strong NE winds will funnel through the Windward Passage through Mon night. Fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba will diminish through sunrise today. Otherwise, fresh to strong trade winds and building seas will prevail over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles through today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the basin near 31N42W extending SW to 26N55W where the boundary transitions to a shear line. The shear line extends SW to the southeastern Bahamas near 23N73W. Strong NE winds revealed in an earlier scatterometer satellite pass and rough seas are behind the front. Near gale force winds maybe be north of the shearline and south of 28N between 55W and 65W. Ahead of the front, and N of 25N, high pressure centered over the Azores is dominating marine weather. Thus, winds are mainly moderate and seas are 5 to 7 ft. To the S of 25N, fresh trades dominate, with locally strong NE to E winds within a few hundred km east of the Lesser Antilles, near and just west of the Cabo Verde Islands, and near and just south and west of the Canary Islands. Seas across the swath of Atlantic waters average 6 to 10 ft. For the forecast W of 65W, the shear line will gradually loose definition through the end of the week. Fresh to near gale-force NE winds to the north of the boundary will continue to expand across the region as high pressure strengthens through today. High pressure will settle into the region at the end of the week leading to improved conditions. A weaker cold front is forecast to move off northern Florida Fri night and extend from 30N65W to Andros Island Sat night, and stall from 28N65W to the central Bahamas Sun night. High pressure will build across the waters early next week. $$ Lewitsky