000 AXNT20 KNHC 170543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Feb 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Atlantic Ocean high pressure combined with low pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support gales pulsing offshore northern Colombia at night into Mon, with winds possibly reaching 40 kt at times. The sea heights will range from 12 feet to 13 feet, highest during the morning hours. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to move off the Texas coast and enter the western Gulf on Thu followed by strong to near gale-force winds and building seas. The front is forecast to extend from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening with gale-force winds and building seas ranging from 6 to 9 ft affecting the Veracruz offshore waters Fri afternoon and evening. The front will then move very slowly southeast, gradually pushing across the basin through early Sun while washing out. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, from the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on the gale warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and extends to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 02N24W to 03N33W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the monsoon trough/ITCZ axis between 16W and 23W. Similar convection is also observed from 01S to 01N between 17W and 23W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a gale warning for the Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf remains under the influence of a ridge extending from a 1045 mb high pressure center off the New England coast. The latest scatterometer imagery reveals fresh to locally strong SE winds over the eastern and northeastern Gulf where seas are 6 to 9 ft. Strong southerly winds are in the western and northwestern Gulf, mainly within 200 nm of the coast, as the pressure gradient builds between the aforementioned high and low pressure over Texas. Seas in this area are 6 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh SE winds dominate elsewhere in the basin, with seas of 3 to 6 ft For the forecast, the strong winds in the NW gulf will continue to grow in areal extent through tonight and then move east across the northern Gulf through Thu. The next cold front is expected to enter the western Gulf on Thu followed by strong to near gale-force winds and building seas. The front will move SE washing out Sun. Moderate to fresh return flow will dominate early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on pulsing gale conditions offshore Colombia. Mainly strong winds dominate the eastern and central Caribbean, as well as the Windward Passage as a result of the tight pressure gradient induced by the strong high pressure north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia. Seas east of 80W, including within the Windward Passage, range from 6 to 8 ft. The exception is south of 15N to the coast of Colombia, seas are 8 to 12 ft. Fresh winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted In the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, strong winds will expand in areal coverage across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea through Thu. Fresh to strong NE winds will funnel through the Windward Passage through Mon night. Fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba will continue through tonight. Otherwise, fresh to strong trade winds and building seas will prevail over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the basin near 31N45W extending SW to 26N55W where the boundary transitions to a shearline. The shearline extends SW to the southeastern Bahamas near 23N73W. Strong NE winds revealed in an earlier scatterometer satellite pass and rough seas are behind the front. Near gale force winds maybe be north of the shearline and south of 28N between 55W and 65W. Ahead of the front, and N of 25N, high pressure centered over the Azores is dominating marine weather. Thus, winds are mainly moderate and seas are 4 to 7 ft. To the S of 23N, fresh trades dominate, with locally strong NE to E winds within a few hundred km E of the Lesser Antilles, near and just west of the Cabo Verde Islands, and near and just S and W of the Canary Islands. Seas across the swath of Atlantic waters average 7 to 10 ft. For the forecast W of 65W, fresh to near gale-force NE winds to the west of the shearline will continue to expand across the region as high pressure strengthens through Thu. High pressure will settle into the region at the end of the week leading to improved conditions. A weaker cold front is forecast to move off northern Florida Fri night and extend from 30N65W to Andros Island Sat night, and stall from 28N65W to the central Bahamas Sun night. High pressure will build across the waters early next week. $$ Mora