000 AXNT20 KNHC 162145 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Feb 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Atlantic Ocean high pressure combined with low pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support gales pulsing offshore northern Colombia at nights into Mon, with winds possibly reaching 40 kt at times. The sea heights will range from 12 feet to 13 feet, highest during the morning hours. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 07N11W to 03N27W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 08N, E of 27W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure centered over the SE U.S. continues to dominate Gulf weather. Fresh to locally strong winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are in the southeast Gulf through the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong southerly winds are located in the western Gulf, mainly within 200 nm of the coast, as the pressure gradient builds between the aforementioned high and low pressure over Texas. Seas in this area are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh SE winds dominate elsewhere in the basin, with seas of 3 to 6 ft. No significant convection is occurring. For the forecast, strong winds in the NW gulf will continue to grow in areal extent through tonight and then move east across the northern Gulf through Thu. The next cold front is expected to enter the western Gulf on Thu followed by strong to near gale- force winds and building seas. The front is forecast to extend from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening with possibly gust to gale force winds affecting the Veracruz offshore waters Fri night. The front will then move very slowly southeast, gradually pushing across the basin through early Sun while washing out. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on pulsing gale conditions offshore Colombia. Fresh to locally strong winds are in offshore southern Cuba with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Strong winds are also inducing seas of up to 8 ft in the Windward Passage. Strong winds dominate the central Caribbean, with seas of 7 to 9 ft. The eastern Carribbean is experiencing fresh trades with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, over the western Caribbean, moderate to locally fresh winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted. Aside from scattered moderate convection in the Gulf of Honduras, relatively dry air is prevent significant activity through the basin. For the forecast, strong winds will expand in areal coverage across the central Caribbean Sea through Thu night. Also, fresh to strong NE winds will funnel through the Windward Passage through Mon night. Fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba will continue through tonight. Otherwise, fresh to strong trade winds and building seas will prevail over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front from 31N47W to 29N56W then becomes stationary and extends SW through the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection extends along and within 330 nm of the boundary. Precipitation previously ahead of the front has dissipated this afternoon. To the north and west of the front, between 45W and 65W, seas of 9 to 13 ft are occurring along with strong to near gale force NE winds. Conditions are beginning to improve N and W of the Bahamas, as high pressure starts to build in. Ahead of the front, and N of 23N, high pressure centered over the Azores is dominating marine weather. Thus, winds are mainly moderate and seas are 4 to 7 ft. To the S of 23N, fresh trades dominate, with locally strong NE to E winds within a few hundred km E of the Lesser Antilles, near and just west of the Cabo Verde Islands, and near and just S and W of the Canary Islands. Seas across the swath of Atlantic waters average 7 to 10 ft. Deep moisture in an arch of strong mid to upper level southwesterly flow to the S of a mainly upper level low pressure centered near 22N31W is leading to a 180 nm wide band of moderate convection that extends from 09N44W to near the center of the low. For the forecast W of 65W, the aforementioned stationary will gradually weaken and transition into a shearline through tonight. Fresh to near gale NE winds to the west of the boundary will continue to expand across the region as high pressure strengthens through Thu. High pressure will settle into the region at the end of the week leading to improved conditions. A weak cold front is forecast to move off northern Florida Fri night and extend from 30N65W to Andros Island Sat night and stall from 28N65W to the central Bahamas Sun night. $$ KONARIK