000 AXNT20 KNHC 160911 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC 1205 UTC Wed Feb 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure ridging north and northeast of the basin over the Atlantic Ocean combined with low pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support pulsing winds to gale-force offshore of northern Colombia at night through Sun night. Winds may peak to 40 kt at times. Seas will peak at 12 to 13 ft around sunrise each morning before subsiding through the morning and afternoon hours. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm southeast and south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 13W and 26W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 04N between 30W and 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are in the southeast Gulf through the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong winds have developed in the NW Gulf offshore of Texas as the pressure gradient between ridging north of the basin and lowering pressures over central Texas tightens. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in that area and are building. Mainly moderate to fresh E-SE winds prevail elsewhere under the ridging, along with 3 to 6 ft, 3 to 4 ft in the SW Gulf. Some isolated showers are possible in this flow. For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds will persist into early Thu then diminish as a cold front moves into the NW Gulf. The front will extend from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri. The front will move very slowly southeast during the start of the weekend, gradually pushing across the basin through early Sun while washing out. CARIBBEAN SEA... The stationary front that was in the NW Caribbean Sea has dissipated. A surface trough is analyzed along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula to the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong winds are in the Lee of Cuba along with 5 to 7 ft seas. Fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft are blowing across the approach to the Windward Passage. Outside of the area of gale-force winds, fresh to strong winds prevail elsewhere in the central Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the basin. Seas of 7 to 11 ft prevail in the south-central and SW Caribbean, with 4 to 7 ft seas elsewhere. Isolated to scattered showers are possible on the trade wind flow. For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia each night through Sun night, while strong winds will expand in areal coverage across the central Caribbean Sea tonight through Thu night. Also, fresh to strong NE winds will funnel through the Windward Passage through Sun night. Fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba will continue today with building seas. Otherwise, trade winds will strengthen and seas will build over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles today through tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 25N65W SW to the southeast Bahamas. Fresh to near gale-force winds are noted north of the front, along with seas of 8 to 12 ft, except 6 to 7 ft north of 29N and west of 70W. Scattered showers are possible in the vicinity of the front on either side. The stationary front continues from 25N65W northeastward as a cold front to 31N52W with a trough analyzed ahead of the front from 30N52W to 24N59W. Scattered showers are possible on either side of both of these features. Ridging dominates the remainder of the basin extending from high pressure north of the area over the Azores. Fresh to strong NE-E trades and resultant 8 to 11 ft seas are noted south of 20N and west of 44W. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted from 13N to 31N between the west coast of Africa and 32W, including through the Canary Islands and the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas are 6 to 9 ft across this area. Moderate to fresh trades and 5 to 8 ft seas prevail elsewhere south of 24N, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and seas of 4 to 6 ft north of 24N and ahead of the front. For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will gradually weaken today, transitioning into a shearline by tonight. Fresh to strong winds to the west of the boundary will expand across the region as high pressure strengthens through Thu. High pressure will settle into the region at the end of the week leading to improved conditions. A weaker cold front is forecast to move off northern Florida Fri night and extend from 30N65W to Andros Island Sat night and stall from 28N65W to the central Bahamas Sun night. $$ Lewitsky