000 AXNT20 KNHC 141650 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Feb 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and lower surface pressures in Colombia and Panama, will continue to support strong to minimal gale- force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia, mainly at night, through Fri night. Peak wave heights with these winds are forecast to reach near 12 ft during the overnight and early morning hours. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the border of Liberia and the Ivory Coast near 05N08W and extends to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 04N32W to 00N44W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted between 14W and the African coast from 01N to 08N. Scattered moderate convection is also observed from 02N to 06N between 23W and 44W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1029 mb high pressure is centered off the coast of Texas near 28N95W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds cover the NW and west-central Gulf. Fresh N to NE winds are farther east and south, with fresh to strong N winds noted over the Florida Straits, Yucatan Channel and SE Gulf. Seas range from 8 to 12 ft over the southern Gulf, highest in the southern Bay of Campeche. The lowest seas of 2 to 4 ft are found in the NW Gulf. For the forecast, marine conditions will improve today as this high pressure centered just offshore the mouth of the Rio Grande builds SE into the Gulf. However, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will continue into Wed night over the SE Gulf and Florida Straits. Fresh to strong southerly return flow is forecast to develop over the NW Gulf Tue night through Wed night. These strong winds will move E across the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu. The next cold front is expected to enter the western Gulf on Thu, and extend from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico, early Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details about an ongoing Gale Warning offshore of the northern coast of Colombia. A cold front extends into the NW Caribbean from central Cuba near 21N78W to 21N81W, where it transitions to a stationary front and continues to the western coast of Honduras near 16N87W. A trough is analyzed ahead of the front from 19.5N79W to 16N84W. Isolated showers are possible near both of these features. Strong N-NE winds and seas of 7 to 8 ft are west of the front with fresh NE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft in the NW Caribbean ahead of the front. Across the remainder of the basin, fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the waters south of 19N and west of 72W, with gentle to moderate NE to E winds elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in the eastern Caribbean and 6 to 9 ft south of 15N in the central Caribbean, with seas up to 11 ft offshore Colombia. For the forecast, winds are expected to pulse to gale force off Colombia each night into Fri night. The stalling cold front that stretches from eastern Cuba to the Honduras-Nicaragua border will dissipate Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected northwest of the front, including in the lee of Cuba, into Tue night with building seas. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected to funnel through the Windward Passage Tue through Thu night. Strong winds are forecast to expand in areal coverage over the central Caribbean Sea Tue night into Thu. Trade winds with strengthen and seas will build over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles, Tue through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N68W to central Cuba near 22N77W. Strong to locally near gale force winds are occurring both ahead of and behind the front, mainly N of 29.5N. Fresh to strong N winds behind the front extend over the NW Bahamas and Florida Straits. Isolated showers are within 100 nm ahead of the front, mainly north of 28N. Seas of 8 to 9 ft are observed in a recent altimeter pass on both sides of the front, mainly north of 28N. Generally moderate winds are present south of 27N between 60W-78W with 5 to 7 ft seas. To the east, a weak surface trough is analyzed from 23N55W to 16N56W with the remainder of the basin under the influence of broad high pressure ridging that is anchored by a 1032 mb high pressure center near 34N38W. As a result of the pressure gradient between the high pressure and ITCZ, strong trades with 9-12 ft seas are present from 12N-21N between 35W-50W. Fresh trades and 7-9 ft seas are noted elsewhere north of the ITCZ to 27N between 16W-55W. Weaker winds and lower seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, strong winds occurring on both sides of the cold front that extends from Bermuda through the SE Bahamas to eastern Cuba will diminish by tonight. The northern part of the front will continue moving E while the southern portions will stall from the Turks and Caicos Islands to the Windward Passage. High pressure will strengthen north of the area in the wake of the front, causing strong NE to E winds to develop over the entire area Tue and persist into Thu. High pressure will settle into the region at the end of the week leading to improving conditions. $$ Nepaul