000 AXNT20 KNHC 130524 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Feb 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a ridge across the Atlantic Ocean and lower surface pressures in Colombia and Panama will support strong to minimal gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia, mainly at night, through the middle of the week. The wave heights are forecast to reach 11-12 ft during the overnight and early morning hours. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 03Z, a cold front extends from the western Florida panhandle to just N of Tampico, Mexico. A recent scatterometer pass provides observations of gale force winds behind the cold front off the Texas and Mexico coasts to offshore Tampico, Mexico. Gales force winds will affect offshore Veracruz this Sun. Strong N winds are forecast over most of the remainder of the Gulf behind the front. The front will exit the basin by this evening. Conditions will gradually improve across the Gulf region by late Mon as high pressure builds across the basin. Wave heights to 12 ft were observed in the NW Gulf as indicated by the latest observations from buoys 42019 near 27N95W and 42020 near 27N97W.. Wave heights are forecast to build to 16-19 ft off Veracruz this morning with gale force NW winds of 35-45 kt. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Sierra Leone/Liberia border and continues westward to near 05N19W. The ITCZ extends from 05N19W to 03N30W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ between 23W-32W. Similar convection is seen near 05N29W. GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front is moving across the Gulf waters followed by gale force winds and rough seas. Please read the Special Features section for details. A surface trough extends from near 23N78W to inland across the Yucatan peninsula. Abundant multilayer clouds with embedded showers and thunderstorms are noted ahead of the front. Showers and thunderstorms are more concentrated near the northern end of the above mentioned surface trough and over the SE waters where the most recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong N-NE winds. Mainly gentle winds are in the NE Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere ahead of the front. As for the forecast, as previously mentioned, the aforementioned cold front should exit the basin this evening. Marine conditions will gradually improve across the Gulf by late Mon as high pressure builds across the basin, however fresh northeast winds will continue through Tue over the southeastern Gulf and the Florida Straits, increasing to strong Tue night and Wed as the pressure gradient tightens across the area. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop over the NW Gulf by the middle of week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please read the Special Features section for details. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are over the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate tradewinds dominate the NW corner of the basin. An altimeter pass indicate seas of 8-11 ft over the central Caribbean south of Jamaica. The wave heights range from 6-9 ft elsewhere in the eastern and central Caribbean. Lower wave heights, in the range of 2-4 ft, are in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Satellite imagery shows patches of low-level moisture moving quickly westward with the trade wind flow over parts of the eastern and central Caribbean, including also Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Isolated to scattered passing showers are possible with these patches of moisture. As for the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia every night through the middle of next week. Fresh to strong winds over the eastern and central Caribbean will continue through this morning. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Caribbean this evening, generating fresh to strong NE winds behind it through Tue with building seas. Expect conditions to deteriorate over the Yucatan Channel by this afternoon ahead of the approaching front. The cold front will extend from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by late Mon night, where it will stall before dissipating Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds will funnel through the Windward Passage Mon night through the middle of the week. Looking ahead, strong winds will expand in areal coverage again over the east and central Caribbean Sea by the middle of the week due to the presence of strong high pressure N of the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough, remnants of an old frontal boundary, extends from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and central Cuba. Some shower activity is associated with the trough. Once again, satellite derived wind data show the wind shift related to the trough axis. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are observed on either side of the trough N of 26N. Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds are just N of Hispaniola. The wave heights are in the range of 3-5 ft to the west of 65W, except for higher heights of 5-8 ft S of 22N and E of 74W. A surface trough persists over the Atlantic and now extends from 24N45W to 14N46W. Plenty of deep atmospheric moisture is present to the east of this trough to about 20W. Within this area of moisture, patches of moderate rain, with embedded showers are possible. Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds are noted per scatterometer data near the northern end of the trough axis due to the pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure of 1033 mb located to the N near 31N39W. Similar wind speeds are also noted E of the trough axis, and mainly from 12N-23N between 28W-45W. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range within these winds. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. As for the forecast west of 65W, fresh to strong trades will pulse N of Hispaniola through tonight. The next cold front is forecast to move offshore Florida early this morning. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead of and behind the front this afternoon through Mon morning to the north and northeast of the Bahamas. The front will extend from 27N65W to eastern Cuba late Mon night. High pressure will strengthen north of the area in the wake of the front, causing strong NE to E winds to expand over the entire area Tue through Wed night, along with building seas. $$ GR