693 AXNT20 KNHC 121045 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Feb 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a building central Atlantic Ocean ridge, and lower surface pressures in Colombia and Panama, will support strong to minimal gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia, mainly at night, through the middle of next week. The wave heights are forecast to peak to 12-14 ft tonight. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the coast of Texas early this afternoon. Gale force northerly winds are expected behind the front offshore of Texas this evening. The gales will quickly move S to offshore Tampico, Mexico tonight and off Veracruz Sun. Strong N winds are forecast over most of the remainder of the Gulf behind the front. The front should exit the basin by Sun evening. The wave heights are forecast to build to 12 ft tonight, then reach 17 ft Sun off Veracruz. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 07N11W to 06N15W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N24W to 01.5N40W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 06N between 08W and 14W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please read the Special Features section for details. A ridge is leading to mainly gentle winds over the northern Gulf and gentle to moderate over the southern Gulf. However, a moistening atmosphere in advance of a cold front located over Texas is providing scattered showers and tstorms over the central Gulf of Mexico, north of 24N between 85W-95W. Seas are 1 to 2 ft over the northern Gulf and 2 to 4 ft over the southern Gulf. As for the forecast, a strong cold front will move off the coast of Texas early this afternoon. Gale force northerly winds are expected behind the front offshore of Texas this evening. The gales will quickly move S to offshore Tampico, Mexico tonight and off Veracruz Sun. Strong N winds are forecast over most of the remainder of the Gulf behind the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will precede the frontal boundary. The front should exit the basin Sun evening. Conditions will gradually improve across the Gulf by late Mon as high pressure builds across the basin, however fresh NE winds will continue through Tue over the SE Gulf and the Florida Straits, increasing to strong Tue night and Wed. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop over the NW Gulf by the middle of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Please read the Special Features section for details. Trade wind cumulus may be producing isolated showers over the NE Caribbean from the Virgin Islands to Haiti. A few showers and tstorms are noted over the NW basin between the Isle of Youth and the Cayman Islands. Otherwise, mid to upper-level ridging, especially over the eastern part of the basin, is producing subsidence and relatively dry air. Fresh to strong winds are occurring over the eastern and central Caribbean, with strong to gale force winds near the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate trades are noted over the NW Caribbean. Wave heights of 6-9 ft are in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, with the exception of 9-12 ft offshore Colombia. Lower wave heights of 2-4 ft are over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. As for the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia every night through the middle of next week. Fresh to strong winds will continue over the eastern and central Caribbean through early Sun. The area of strong winds over the central Caribbean is expected to expand again by the middle of next week. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Caribbean Sun evening, generating fresh to strong NE winds behind it through Tue, with building seas. The cold front will extend from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by Mon night, where it will stall before dissipating Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds will funnel through the Windward Passage Mon night through the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating stationary front is analyzed from 31N69W to 22N77W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the front. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail over the western Atlantic, except for fresh north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Seas are 2-5 ft west of 72W, and 6-8 ft north of Puerto Rico. Farther east, a surface trough remains over the eastern Atlantic and extends from 26N39W to 08N41W. Broken to overcast multilayer clouds, with embedded areas of moderate rain and isolated tstorms are noted near the surface trough eastward to near 20W. Fresh to strong winds are occurring over a large portion of the eastern and central Atlantic on both sides of the trough. Seas are 8-10 ft in this area, mainly from 07N-30N between 30W-60W. The remainder of the Atlantic waters are under the influence of a 1031 mb high pressure located near 35N30W. As for the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned weakening stationary front will dissipate early this morning. Fresh to strong trades will pulse N of Hispaniola through Sun night. The next cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida early on Sun and extend from 31N68W to east-central Cuba near 22N78W early Mon, and from 28N65W to eastern Cuba Mon evening. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead of and behind the front. Looking ahead, high pressure will strengthen north of the area, causing strong NE to E winds to expand over the entire area Tue through Wed night. This will produce large seas over the entire western and central Atlantic for the middle of next week. $$ Hagen