000 AXNT20 KNHC 120512 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Feb 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a building central Atlantic Ocean ridge, and lower surface pressures in Colombia and Panama, will support strong to minimal gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia, mainly at night through the middle of next week. The wave heights are forecast to peak to 12-13 ft Sat night. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the coast of Texas early Sat afternoon. Gale force northerly winds are expected behind the front offshore of Texas Sat evening. The gales will quickly move S to offshore Tampico, Mexico Sat night and off Veracruz Sun. Strong N winds are forecast over most of the remainder of the Gulf behind the front. The front should exit the basin by Sun evening. The wave heights are forecast to build to 12-13 ft on Sat night, possibly reaching 16 ft on Sun off Veracruz. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 06N11W to 06N15W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 03N30W to 02N50W. Convection is limited. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please read the Special Features section for details. A ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters, with a 1018 mb high pressure located over south Georgia. Broken to overcast multilayer clouds, with embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms cover the western half of the Gulf. A weak surface trough is analyzed from 28N88W to 23N90W. The latest ASCAT data passes show moderate to fresh NE-E winds N of the Yucatan peninsula to about 23N. Mainly light to gentle winds are seen elsewhere but particularly over the north-central Gulf. Wave heights are generally in the 1-3 ft range. As for the forecast, a strong cold front will move off the coast of Texas early Sat afternoon. Gale force winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will precede the frontal boundary. The front should exit the basin by Sun evening. Conditions will gradually improve across the Gulf by Mon night as high pressure builds across the basin, however fresh NE winds will continue through Tue over the SE Gulf and the Florida Straits, increasing to strong Tue night and Wed. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop over the NW Gulf by the middle of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Please read the Special Features section for details. Recent satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to strong winds of 25-30 kt over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia, and fresh to locally strong winds elsewhere across the east and central parts of the basin. Gentle to moderate trades are noted over the NW Caribbean. Wave heights of 6-8 ft are in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, with the exception of 7-10 ft offshore Colombia. Lower wave heights of 2-4 ft are over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Patches of low-level moisture, producing isolated to scattered passing showers are seen moving westward over the eastern Caribbean Sea on latest satellite imagery. A narrow line of showers with isolated thunderstorms is noted over the NW Caribbean extending from near the Isle of Youth, Cuba to the coast of Quintana Roo in the Yucatan Peninsula. As for the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia every night through the middle of next week. Fresh to strong winds prevail elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean, and these winds will continue through early Sun. The area of strong winds over the central Caribbean is expected to expand again by the middle of next week. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Caribbean Sun evening, generating fresh to strong NE winds behind it through Tue, with building seas. The cold front will extend from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by Mon night, where it will stall before dissipating Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds will funnel through the Windward Passage Mon night through the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is analyzed from 31N69W southwestward to the central Bahamas and to Camaguey, Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the front and also over the waters between the central Bahamas and west-central Cuba. Similar convective activity is noted near the southern end of the front over Camaguey, Cuba, and also over parts of central Cuba. Scatterometer data indicate the wind shift associated with the front, with mainly moderate SE winds east of the front, and gentle NE winds to the west of the boundary. A surface trough remains over the eastern Atlantic and extends from 26N38W to 08N41W. Broken to overcast multilayer clouds, with embedded areas of moderate rain and isolated showers are noted to the east of the surface trough to near 20W. Strong to near gale- force winds are observed per scatterometer data E of the trough axis, covering the waters from 16N-21N between 35W-40W. Fresh to strong winds are also noted from 12N-16N between 34W-39W. Seas of 8-9 ft are within these winds. Another area of fresh to strong NE winds and seas in the 8-10 ft range is over the central Atlantic on the W side of the trough, affecting mainly the waters from 20N- 26N between 48W-53W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a 1034 mb high pressure located E of the Azores near 36N29W. As for the forecast west of 65W, the above mentioned stationary front will dissipate on Sat. Fresh to strong trades are forecast for the offshore waters N of Hispaniola through Sat night. The next cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida early on Sun and extend from 31N66W to east-central Cuba near 21N78W early Mon, and from 28N65W to eastern Cuba Mon evening. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead of and behind the front. Looking ahead, high pressure will strengthen north of the area, causing strong NE to E winds to expand over the entire area late Tue through Wed night. $$ GR