000 AXNT20 KNHC 111049 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Feb 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a building ridge over the central Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will support strong to minimal gale force winds across the south- central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia mainly at night, every night through the middle of next week. Seas are forecast to build to 12-13 ft by Sat night. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will move into the NW Gulf by early Sat afternoon and exit the SE Gulf late Sun afternoon. Gale force N winds are expected behind the front offshore of Texas and Tampico, Mexico Sat night, then offshore Veracruz on Sun. Seas are forecast to build to 12 ft Sat night, and could exceed 15 ft Sun off Veracruz. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains mostly over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 07N13W to 01N40W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found from the Equator to 06N between 21W and 39W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the Gulf region with a 1020 mb high pressure located in the NE Gulf, just south of Apalachicola, FL. Another high pressure center of 1019 mb is analyzed over southeast Louisiana. Patches of low level clouds are noted across the Gulf waters, more concentrated over the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds are over the SW Gulf, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range over the northern Gulf and 2-4 ft over the southern Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure over the northern Gulf will support benign marine conditions across the basin through Sat morning. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf by early Sat afternoon and exit the SE Gulf late Sun afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will precede the front. Gale force N winds are expected behind the front offshore of Texas and Tampico, Mexico Sat night, then offshore Veracruz on Sun. Fresh to strong N winds are forecast over most of the remainder of the Gulf, behind the front. Conditions will gradually improve across the Gulf by Mon night as high pressure builds across the area, however moderate to fresh NE winds will continue through Tue night over the southeastern Gulf and the Straits of Florida. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning offshore NW Colombia. A surface trough is over the NW Caribbean from east-central Cuba near 21N78W to 17.5N84W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted to the northwest of the surface trough. Recent data from buoy 42060 in the eastern Caribbean near 16.4N 63.3W show winds of 23 kt gusting to 29 kt, with seas of 7 ft. Similar conditions are likely occurring over much of the eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are also occurring in the south-central Caribbean, with near-gale force winds near the coast of Colombia. Therefore, fresh or stronger winds cover most of the basin east of 78W. Over the western Caribbean, gentle to moderate NE winds prevail. Seas are currently 6 to 7 ft over the eastern and central Caribbean, except 7-10 ft offshore Colombia. Seas are 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds over the eastern Caribbean will move westward and expand through the central Caribbean into Saturday. Winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia every night through the middle of next week. The next cold front is expected to enter the northwest Caribbean Sun afternoon, generating fresh to strong NE winds behind it through Tue, with building seas. The cold front will extend from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by Mon night, where it will stall before dissipating Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds will funnel through the Windward Passage Mon night through the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from Bermuda across the central Bahamas to the north coast of east-central Cuba near 22N77W. Scattered showers and tstorms are along the front northeast of the Bahamas. Mainly moderate S winds are east of the front, with gentle NE winds on the W side of the boundary. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 28N34W to 08N40W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 240 nm east of the trough axis, mainly from 16N-25N. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are likely occurring within 210 nm west of the trough axis, north of 19N. Fresh to strong winds are noted east of the Lesser Antilles to 50W with seas of 8-9 ft over this area. For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned stationary front will weaken today and dissipate Sat. Fresh to strong trades are forecast for the waters N of Hispaniola tonight through Sat night. The next cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida early on Sun and extend from 31N67W to east-central Cuba near 21N77W early Mon, and from 27N65W to eastern Cuba Mon evening. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead of and behind the front, affecting most of the western Atlantic through the middle of next week. $$ Hagen