000 AXNT20 KNHC 102240 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Feb 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a building ridge over the central Atlantic and lower pressures over NW Colombia and Panama will tighten, supporting gale force winds in offshore NW Colombia starting tonight. Additional gales may pulse each night Fri night and Sat night. Seas in and near the region of gales will peak near 13 ft. Winds will decrease below gale by Sunday, but the rough seas will persist into early next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains mostly over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 07N13W to 06N17W to 06N23W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found within 60 nm N and 150 nm S of the ITCZ between 23W and 34W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 mb high pressure centered near 30N89W dominates the Gulf of Mexico, allowing fairly tranquil weather conditions. Gentle to moderate winds are over the SW Gulf, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range over the northern Gulf and 2-3 ft over the southern Gulf. For the forecast, the area of high pressure over the northern Gulf will continue to support generally mild marine conditions across the basin into Sat. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf by late Sat afternoon and exit the SE Gulf Sun morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front over most of the Gulf. Gale force winds are possible over the far west-central and SW Gulf of Mexico Sat night into Sun. High pressure will build across the northern Gulf Mon, however moderate to fresh NE winds over the eastern and SW gulf in the wake of the front will continue through Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES Section above for details on the developing gales offshore NW Colombia. A dissipating stationary front extends from central Cuba to near the Honduras/Nicaragua border. Gentle to moderate winds are found west of the stationary front. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 3-5 ft over the far western Caribbean, 1-3 ft over the waters south of Cuba as well as the Windward passage, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate tonight. Winds west of the front will decrease through Fri. Winds will pulse to minimal gale force off Colombia tonight through Sun, then resume again Tue night. The next front is expected to enter the basin Sun, generating fresh to strong NE winds in the NW Caribbean and building seas. The front will extend from 21N72W SW to NE Honduras by Mon night where it will stall before dissipating Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds will funnel through the Windward Passage Mon night through the middle to the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N68W to the central Bahamas to central Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 120 nm east of the boundary north of 25N. Gentle to moderate winds are noted west of the front, as well as east of the front to 65W. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over the open waters west of 65W, and 1-3 ft west of the Bahamas. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N30W to 18N38W. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8-11 ft prevail within 480 nm west of the trough. A second trough is noted from 16N35W to 06N38W. Scattered moderate convection is within 480 nm east of these features. Fresh to strong winds are also noted east of the windward Islands with seas of 6-8 ft over this area. Elsewhere, winds are in the gentle to moderate range with seas of 4-6 ft. For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will begin to dissipate tonight. Fresh to strong trades are forecast for the offshore waters N of Hispaniola Sat through Sun. The next cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida early on Sun and extend from 29N65W to the eastern tip of Cuba by Mon afternoon. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead and behind the front affecting most of the area through mid-week. $$ AL