000 AXNT20 KNHC 052338 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Feb 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends off the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 07N13W. The ITCZ continues from 07N13W to 03N29W to the coast of Brazil near 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection within 100 nm north of the ITCZ and within 250 nm south of it. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the southeast Gulf of Mexico, from Naples, FL near 26N82W to 24N84W with a stationary front extending from 24N84W to the northern Yucatan near 22N88W. Strong northerly winds continue north of the front in addition to the southwest Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the front. High pressure continues to build across most of the basin with no significant convection. Gentle to moderate winds are noted in the northern Gulf. Buoys across the Gulf indicate seas in the southern Gulf range 6-9 ft with 3-5 ft in the northern basin. For the forecast, the front will stall across the Straits of Florida and Yucatan Channel tonight, then dissipate through late Sun. Gale force winds over the southwest Gulf have diminished. Winds and seas will diminish quickly across the Gulf Sun as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf. Looking ahead, another cold front will develop over the northern Gulf late Mon and move across the basin through mid week, possibly bringing another round of winds to gale force to the west-central and southwest Gulf Mon night and Tue. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin by Wed night as high pressure builds over the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A shearline extends across Anguilla westward to northern Puerto Rico. The shearline along with a small upper level low south of Puerto Rico is providing focus for thunderstorms to move across the north-central Caribbean, from 16N-19N between 63W and 70W. A trough extends across the NW Caribbean from 16N83W to 22N84W with showers along it. Fresh to strong winds are noted north of Colombia, otherwise gentle to moderate trades prevail across the rest of the basin. Seas range 3-6 ft. For the forecast, high pressure NE of Bermuda extending SW to the NW Bahamas will support pulses of fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia, south of Hispaniola, and in the Windward passage through Sun night. Large NE swell dominating the Atlantic waters of the Leeward Islands will gradually diminish tonight through Sun night. A cold across the SE Gulf of Mexico today will stall across the Yucatan Channel tonight and weaken through Sun. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel late Tue then stall over the far northwest Caribbean Wed and Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Off the Florida coast, a cold front extends from 31N73W to West Palm Beach, Florida near 27N80W. A trough stretches across the Bahamas from 28N74W to 22N75W. Showers are noted along both of these boundaries. Fresh to strong winds are noted behind the cold front with seas 8-10 ft. Farther east across the central Atlantic, a 1013 mb low is analyzed near 28N46W with a cold front extending southwest of the low to 19N56W. A shearline stretches westward from the tail-end of the boundary to northern Puerto Rico near 19N67W. A trough extends north of the low to 31N47W. Scattered moderate convection is mostly along the low from 23N-32N between 40W and 51W. Fresh to moderate winds are noted along the low with moderate northerly winds north of the front and shearline. Northerly swell from this system continues to impact the Greater Antilles and the northern Lesser Antilles with seas 8-10 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1016 mb low is located west of the Canary Islands near 30N22W with a trough extending along the low from 29N21W to 31N25W. A trough extends off the Western Sahara coast near 25N15W to 31N18W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted across the area with seas 5-8 ft. For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will reach from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas tonight and begin to stall. Weak low pressure will form along the front off east central Florida Sun, then lift northward and drag the western portion of the front north of the area Mon. Another cold front will follow off the northeast Florida coast late Mon, then stall and dissipate from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas through mid week. $$ AReinhart