000 AXNT20 KNHC 030559 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Feb 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: Tight pressure gradient between a 1016 mb low near 30N54W and a 1039 mb N Atlantic high E of Nova Scotia is generating near-gale to gale winds east-southeast of Bermuda. Seas of 13 to 15 ft will persist near the strongest winds. Gradual improvement is expected starting late Thu night or early Fri morning. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf off the Texas/Louisiana coast late Thu morning, then move slowly southeastward through Fri night. Near-gale to gale winds will develop behind the front across W central and NW Gulf by early Thu afternoon, before spreading to the Bay of Campeche Fri night. Seas in these areas will build and reach 9 to 11 ft by Thu evening, then quickly rise further to between 15 and 18 ft late Thu night. Marine conditions should begin to subside from N to S starting late Fri evening. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on both Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough lies mostly across the central African continent. An ITCZ extends from 02S28W to N of Sao Luis, Brazil at EQ43W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the Equator between 34W and 44W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning. A surface trough stretches east-northeastward from a 1005 mb low W of Corpus Christi across the NW Gulf to near New Orleans. Scattered showers are present along and just S of the Texas- Louisiana-Mississippi coastline. Otherwise, a surface ridge extends southwestward from N Florida across the central Gulf to SE Mexico. Moderate to fresh with locally strong SE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are seen over the NE and E central Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds with seas at 5 to 7 ft are noted for the central and SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. Moderate SE to S winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. As for the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters producing fresh to strong SE winds over the E Gulf with building seas, and moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds over the W Gulf through Thu morning. A cold front will push off the coast of Texas Thu near noon. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico Thu evening, from near Panama City, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche early Fri evening, and from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by early Sat morning. Strong to gale force northerly winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front across the W Gulf Thu through Fri night. Conditions will gradually improve by late in the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trade winds are coupling with divergent winds aloft to trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Hispaniola and E Cuba. Otherwise, a ENE to ESE trade-wind pattern continues to dominate the entire basin. Fresh to strong trades with seas at 6 to 7 ft are present over the S central basin, N of the Colombian coast; and also across the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea. As for the forecast, high pressure located N of the Caribbean Sea will continue to support fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia, south of Hispaniola, in the Windward passage, and in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through Fri night. Mainly moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning. A robust upper-level trough stretches from the N central Atlantic across 31N63W to the N coast of Hispaniola. This feature is enhancing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near converging trade winds N of Puerto Rico, from 19N to 25N between 59W and 70W. Farther NE, a surface trough curves westward from a 1016 mb low at 30N54W through 29N59W to 39N64W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near these features N of 28N between 51W and 65W. Near the central Atlantic, a weakening cold front runs southwestward from a low W of Azores across 31N44W to 21N54W. Scattered showers are occurring near and up to 130 nm SE of the front. Another upper-level trough near 29N18W is triggering scattered showers over the Canary Islands, N of 25N between the NW African coast and 19W. Outside the Gale Warning area, moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE to ESE trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft are evident from the Greater Antilles northward to beyond 31N between 59W and the Florida- Georgia coast. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE trades and seas at 4 to 7 ft are seen near the Cabo Verde Islands from 12N to 25N between the Mauritania-W Sahara coast and 28W, and from the Equator to 15N between 28W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. As for the forecast W of 65W, fresh to locally strong trade winds extend from the Florida Straits through the Old Bahama Channel to the area N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Winds will increase to strong N of Hispaniola and E Cuba tonight as the pressure gradient tightens in the area. A low pressure with a frontal trough over the central Atlantic will move S of 30N tonight, and will bring an increase in winds to gale force and seas mainly across the E forecast waters on Thu. N to NE swell behind the trough will propagate across the waters E of the Bahamas late this week and into the upcoming weekend. $$ Chan